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Limits are 1-2-100, meaning it’s $1-$2 with a $100 max bet and uncapped buy in. Effective stacks are ~$300.
I’ve played with villain before and he’s very straightforward. Villain is limp happy preflop, but does raise his strong hands, and a post flop nit. When he bets or raises, it always means strength. I’ve never seen him bluff.
I have A2s in the cutoff. Villain is UTG. Villain and 3 others limp in, so I limp as well. Button and both blinds limp. 7 to the flop.
Flop ($14)
AJ2rChecks to me. I bet $12 and get 3 calls
Turn ($62)
AJ2-QChecks to me again. I bet $37. Only villain calls.
River ($136)
AJ2Q-JVillain thinks for 30 seconds, then bets out $55.
Interesting spot.
I guess we can suppose that villain would raise AJ-AK pf. If he limps AJ, AQ, we can suppose he’d bet or raise post flop. He might play broadways here, he might have turned a straight but would he lead turn, or check-raise? Would he lead river with a straight on a paired board?
If he has AT- would he lead here? Like kind of a blockbet / thin value vs Qx.I guess that, at best, we chop 🙁
I don’t know if I call… maybe I would since we got almost 4:1 (a bit less) but are we good 20% of the time? Actually, maybe I fold after tanking for a bitJason,
I read through these hands trying to improve my own game. Not only do I think about the hand, but I try to pick apart the responders’ reasoning.
In this hand, I have to agree with Chuck. There are a few more hands that I considered since you said that villain was limp happy pre-flop. Things like KQ, KJ, QJ, J10, K10, Q10. The big question for me, then, becomes what can he be betting for value on the end that you actually beat? Because of the board texture and his nature of not bluffing, he has to have at least two pair to bet here, and you have the worst two pair hand he could be betting. It doesn’t sound like he’s a guy to bet KQ for a smaller two pair than yours. So you’re at the bottom of his range and would be calling hoping to only chop. I would expect calling to be a loser every time, mostly to trips that was considering a straight (his 30 second tank) and sometimes to a better two pair than yours.
You seemed pretty sure of your reads on this guy. If so, I think it has to be a fold. It sucks to flop good and have to fold later.Thanks for the responses. My thoughts were basically in line with the replies here, but it felt weird and I wanted to get a second opinion. I did end up folding, and while villain didn’t show he later told me had AT. Another player at the table refused to believe he had less than a full house. We’ll never know for sure I guess.
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