Home › Forums › Share Your Hand › No Limit Holdem › 1-2 \ 1-3 › 1/2, I've been weak :(
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02/28/2020 at 12:06 pm #4753Chuck MParticipant
Multi limps
I call btn 63cc
Flop 245, yeah!
Old lady leads 10 into 10
I raise intentionally smallish to 25, she callsTurn 5
She donks 36, i callRiver 3
She 90, I’d be almost allin.….
Felt i was beat, if not on turn, river ruined my hand (i thought).Started the night with a ~550 bankroll, and already was on my second $200 bullet… I guess I didn’t wanna get involved in a big pot without the absolute nuts…
…
I thought about it with a friend, I think I win a lot here.
Board 24553..Lady can have Ax, A5, 56, 77-99 (prolly opens TT+)
Does she limp 52 don’t think so
54, 22, 33, 44, 55, are possibleA2-A4 i guess she x/c turn
A5 makes sense… I ended up folding, thinking i made a huge hero fold vs a boat, but the more i think about it, the more i think it was a call (or a shove on the turn)
02/28/2020 at 3:55 pm #4755Herm HermanParticipantSo many questions, so please do not take anything below as criticism, just genuine curiosity on the hand. I am going to jump right into the river action because it has be very curious.
When the river peels, there is now $132 in the pot, and it sounds like you have roughly $100 back. When she bets $90, putting the pot at $222, you are getting just about 2.5 to 1 on your money. Meaning, in order for you to call, you need to be right 1 out of every 3.5 times to break even (roughly 29% of the time).
You mentioned multiple times that she could have Ax, A5, 56, and 77-99. You even say A2-A5 makes sense, but none of those beat you in this hand. Only 5-6 chops the pot, everything else you win. Only non full house hand you lose to would be specifically 6-7.
Yes, she could have a pocket pair for a full house or 4-5 for a full house, but you do have a blocker for pocket 3s, and two of the 5s are already on the board. It is still possible, for instance with 4-5.
It comes down to, do you think you would win this hand 1 out of every 3.5 times in this situation. If you think that is the case, the answer is a call. You even said yourself “you think you win a lot here”, so this is something to consider in the future.
There is nothing wrong with folding because you think you are beat, but folding because you don’t want to be involved in a big pot without the nuts is probably not the best mentality moving forward. If you are only playing the nuts, people will catch on to that and exploit it moving forward, even if this was a correct fold.
02/29/2020 at 4:18 pm #4756Chuck MParticipantyeah, I folded ’cause at the time, I strongly felt I was beat, that kind of gut feeling you have when playing live, you just know.. Like when I bet bet bet and had to call my villain’s x/r on the river with 52 on 722T5, knew i was probably beat, he had 77. Just because of the style of play of certain villains, older tighter players, showed only good hands at showdown. Donk leads with tptk or better.
So in that spot, the only hand that I beat that [I thought at the time] would make sense, would be A5.
I know that if I start giving her a range, I should be good here like 88% of the time, I guess, but at the moment, I felt beat.It’s just like a week after that I started to think back to this hand and realized I dumped a pot I should’ve taken.
“folding because I don’t want to be involved in a big pot without the nuts” is not something that crosses my mind, was more a manner of speach here. That night, I was pretty cold deck, lost with underboat, AQ to AJ, flopped flush, 2pairs vs straight, didnt wanna bust my roll. I usually make my decisions based on poker strat instead of money restrictions.
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate it
03/02/2020 at 11:41 am #4757DeeKayParticipantHey Chuck… I think Herm covered most of the basics. The conclusion being that the only hands you are losing to… could she have – those small pairs or small suited connectors.
Granted she limped then fired… likely Ace rag or even Ace rag spades.
The one open question I have is what kind of player is she? Has she been known to bet aggressive… has she shown some capability understand the game?
I just don’t see a situation here where you could fold. I get being gun shy, but your hand is so strong. There’s just too many ways for you to win vs. lose.
The one thing I will disagree (sort of) with Herm is the pot odds. I think about this differently, because to me it doesn’t matter “would win this hand 1 out of every 3.5 times in this situation”, as it only matters if you win this one. What pot odds doesn’t consider is the analytics that you applied to this hand, either from instinct or read. If you truly had no solid information (like her playing style, table image, etc.) then all things remain the same and I think its an easy call. If she has a habit of only betting the nuts or when she does play a hand, she always bets aggressive… then this is helpful information to steer the pot odds more or less into your favor.
Let me say one more thing and please just take it constructive. Fear is a horrible emotion to base your decisions on. This is why professional players are so good… because they will consistently put you in uncomfortable situations. You have to look past that fear, and make the decision based on your capabilities. If you trust your instincts, and your instincts said fold… then so be it… move on. But just don’t fold out of fear of being wrong and having a bad night. It only takes one good hand to change that around.
Don’t beat yourself up too bad about it… the one tough thing about playing 1-2 is that players can be very difficult to read and understand.03/02/2020 at 2:52 pm #4759Chuck MParticipantHey DeeKay
Thanks for your answer.My read at the moment was one of a tight lady. Didn’t play many hands. Poatflop, ive seen her donk vs me and other players. When went at showdown sually won, but won some pots without showdown too.
I couldn’t agree more with you when you said fear is the worst thing to feel at the table. I really focus my decision making on ranges and history.
In that hand, i talked about the fear of having a big losing night, but when i played it, my gut feeling told me i was beat on turn. I might’ve been wrong, but my instincts were strongAfterwards, i was even proud of that fold, feeling i make a sick laydown.
It’s only like a week later, when i started to think about it again, that i started to think i should’ve called.Oh well, i guess those spots are useful in the way that i take notes from then, and try to learn lessons from
Thanks for your input
Cheers03/03/2020 at 10:04 am #4760Phx Chris PParticipantthe one thing I would add, and maybe you already thought of this, is that sometimes your read on a player is that they are super strong is correct, but they are over-valuing their hand. So their mannerism and even betting (size,line,physical,etc) is that of someone who is sure they have the best hand…but they aren’t necessarily the kind of player to have put a huge amount of thought on what YOU may have in that spot. that being said, I think it was a good fold. you only beat some of her 5x, chop 66, any pairs over 6’s all would have probably been afraid of the turn 5 and less likely to bet then shove. You win here occasionally, but I think way more you lose….although ppl do crazy shit at 1/2 so who knows! lol…good fold good fold.
03/05/2020 at 10:17 am #4765DeeKayParticipantChris’ comment is spot on and what I was eluding to on the type of player. Its easy to have a big hand in that situation, it wasn’t as easy to have a hand that beats you. So I would have thought A-5 was a monster and would have gone broke playing it. Which is why I think you over valued her tight image here. You are basically losing to a flopped set or 5-4 suited or if at all possible 6-7 suited (if they were spades). And given it was only about $90 more… I think its a no brainer call. It seems like the bad night weighed into your decision and that’s too bad. You were afraid of her flipping that nutted hand and then afterwards you would have said “obviously”. Plus… you hand was pretty well hidden. And you had blockers if you believe in the blocker theory. Yes means its less likely to have 6-7 but doesn’t mean they don’t have it.
The other thing I could have suggested is that when she lead out for $36, I think I would have like to see a re-raise there. This way you are charging draws and weaker hands, plus based on your read on her, this clearly means she has a good hand and not very likely to fold. My thought would have been to set up the river jam.
Question: If the river wasn’t a 3 and a total brick… would this have changed your action?Bottom line… if you are using sound fundamentals… and your instincts and reads have done well for you… then whether you were right or wrong here, things are just fine. Sometimes you have bad reads or make mistakes. Its a tough spot. Hahaha – but next time snap that off and get those chips!!
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