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Hello again! Wanted to drop this hand off and get your thoughts on my analysis and villains play here.
Hero stack: 500
Hero position: BTN
Hero hand: 5h 6hVillain stack: 800
Villain position: UTG
Villain hand: reveal at endPreflop:
Villain opens to 20, HJ calls, hero callsHero hand equity: 27.9%
Villain range equity: 43.7%
HJ range equity: 28.4%Pot equity to call: 33%
This is interesting here. Calling here, even with the implied odds, does not seem to be profitable against the villain’s opening range. I wonder whether this is a preflop leak. As played, hero calls because the effective stacks are 20X the initial raise.
Pot: 60
Flop: Kh 7h 9h
Villain bets 60, HJ folds, hero callsHero hand equity: 86.5%%
Villain range equity: 13.5%Pot equity to call: 33%
Villain puts out a pot size bet into two players, and it screams strength. I narrowed the villain’s range to nut flush or nut flush draw, Kx, Kx with backdoor flush-draw, pocket pairs with a heart, sets, and straight draws. Even with that range, I’m in good shape. Plus it’s less likely that he flopped a flush as well since I’m holding hearts. With my hand and pot equity, this is a very profitable call.
Pot: 180
Turn: Qd
Villain shoves, hero tank-callsHero hand equity: 90.1%
Villain range equity: 9.89%Pot equity to call: 41.18%
I tanked for a minute. I was certain he does not have a flush at this point and I suspected he has a hand he’s trying to protect against my line, which looks like a flush draw. Even if he is holding a heart in his hand, I’m holding most of his outs so he is drawing thinner than he actually is. I call knowing I’m way ahead, but not knowing how much until I do the work off the felt.
Pot: 1020
River: 9cVillain hand: 7s 7d
Villain wins the hand with a Full-HouseYup. He had 10 outs for his hand to improve. I’m really interested in your thoughts on villain’s play here. Is his play high variance or my calling his over-bet? Should I have raised the flop and take the betting lead from him?
Villain’s hand looks exactly like what it is – a strong hand that doesn’t want to see the flush come in. AK or better (or maybe QQ/JJ with a heart). What else is he potting into two players with? Nut flush isn’t doing this because they don’t want to scare people away. Ah probably isn’t doing this because they don’t want to scare people away in case they hit. They way he bets it looks like he’s trying to scare off the flush draw. No real reason to bet pot on the flop then double pot on turn if you want a call.
I’m not sure what I think of a raise here. I think you only fold out the hands you dominate (like AK no heart) and you leave yourself with an awkward stack size (less than 1 SPR).
This situation is more common than you would think. And while the equity shows you should call. I don’t know how profitable it would be long term. You had a 6 high flush draw, not that big. Although the AhKh combo is blocked so it’s hard to think he has the nut flush. I am kind of a beginner but i had these situations come up before.
Your hand is good but it’s so easy to get dominated by a bigger flush when you flop it. You get 2 more cards coming, He may have AQ, AJ, AT all with maybe one heart since he is in UTG.
Looking back if you knew he was going to bomb on the turn, you should have shoved all on the flop after he bet (or maybe a bigger raise if shoving is not your thing). I guess just calling you made him think you have only the flush draw.
He may have folded to a big raise with set in his hand(or a 2 pair) on a flush board while he had no heart in this hand.
I guess in these situations you (and me) should take the lesson of thinking ahead. If i know i’m calling a turn big bet or shove, maybe i raise.You got the money in with 80% equity. Majority of the time this is going to work out for you. I wouldn’t consider it high variance bc you called with a suited connector preflop and flopped the flush, as you pointed out it’s really hard for him to have a flush and if he somehow does it’s kind of just a cooler. You could raise his bet on the flop and if he 3 bets consider him to have a higher flush and fold if you are worried about finding out where you are at. Other than that you got the money in good and unfortunately it didn’t work this time. 5h6h is a profitable call the deeper stacks get. I’m not sure if it is profitable to call preflop when the raise is so substantial bc you are going to be playing an inflated pot with a drawing hand and depending on the player that raise could narrow his range to premiums. Depends a bit on your read of the table and if you think you will get called down on a made hand
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