1/2 game

So its $90 to call a $320 ish pot? I mean I think a call is going to be out of the question here based on stack sizes… so lets say that its either a fold or shove. So effectively $215 to you on a $320 pot with $125 implied (what could he fold??)

Playing 1/2 (at least in Vegas casinos) the QQ is to strong to just snap fold on this flop I think. But lets think about it a little. Knowing almost nothing about your opponent except that he is a 1/2 player and middle aged, we are going to have to base some ranges on the field of 1/2 players in general.

Villain overcalls the $8 pre, then overcalls again for $33 in a multiway pot. So you know it is surely not a larger pocket pair than your QQ. Probably not even JJ (but maybe). Some people would play AK this way, but I think that AK is the only non pair hand he could be likely to have here. Feels more like a small/mid pocket pair. If it were more of a loosey goosey maybe we could add JTs or something similar to his range, but with out that information I think we can exclude it most of the time.

Based on the flop check raise the set makes perfect sense. I dont imagine he has 78 here based on preflop, plus no slow play with the nuts on a non flush draw flop. Possibly 77 or 88 and he puts you on a big Ace, and figures he has a draw to go with his pair if he is wrong. Its a pretty weak thought process, but I am assuming we are talking about a typical 1/2 player here. So its possible. Sometimes people try hard to convince themselves the Preflop aggressor has AK. Possibly JJ and just sees his over pair as the nuts.

Do you think this player has the creativity to check raise bluff? What is his perception of your image? Have you been overly aggressive this last couple orbits, and maybe he is trying to play back at you? If so, I think a call here gets his whole stack on the river, so if you call here you need to already decide that the river is always a call also. So I take back what I said first about shove or fold. If he could do this with 77, 88 or JJ you want to call & call. A re-jam just turns your QQ into a bluff where a worse hand will fold and only a better hand will call, and his bet sizing is already giving him the wrong price to draw. So bad initial though on my part.

If you don’t think he can be this kind of creative player, and/or you don’t think you have an overly aggressive image to him, I don’t think there is much you can beat except possibly JJ.

Obviously 77 and 88 or JJ are mathematically more likely for him to have here than 66, 99 or TT but I think the “normal” player with this line of action has the set too often here to be a profitable call. Without knowing anything else about this player I think you probably find a fold (after trying to get a read of course).

Fortunately his remaining stack is pretty small compared to the size of the pot, so if you do call $90 here on a $320 pot its not THAT bad. You only need to be good about 30% of the time to be profitable. But you’re usually facing the last $125 on the river, so I guess you need to be ahead here more like 45% of the time if you are always calling the river. Even if you think he is the kind of player who COULD do this on the draw, you can probably find a better spot to get it all in. Unless he is a wild player I think you can be patient and fold.