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Tight passive limp utg ,with 50 stack ,i picked up AsKh in mp1 with 270 stack .I iso to 12 ,cutoff spot at the table 200stack calls ,sb pro plr who plays loose agresive complets 12 with 500 around here stack , ,bb folds and limper calls .Flop Ac5h8h ,check to me ,i cbet 25 in 51 ,co folds sb calls and limper folds .Turn comes 5c ,sb check i bet 55 ,he tanks not very long and calls .river comes Qh.And he leads out 65 on river in 220 around here .Any thoughts ?
I think knowing your table image may be useful here. A loose pro may be trying to push a tight player around (Qh is a good bluff card), or he may be betting for value against a calling station
Pre-flop: It’s hard to isolate an UTG limper with an open from MP. I think you can size up your open a little bit though, but $12 may be good depending on table dynamic.
Flop: I believe its 4 of you seeing it, and $51 in the pot. I think your sizing is fine, although I’d probably go around $35. You aren’t last to act, and you really want to charge those draws. Someone could easily have the Ah.
Turn: Heads-up. Again, I think your sizing should be up here. if he’s loose and aggressive, you can definitely put him on a flush draw here with about any two suited cards. I’d go more $75/$80 here.
River: So, he mini-tank called on the turn. I think that means we can cut his range down. He does not have a 5. He may have 67. He may still have Ax of hearts, but most likely not. So his story really seems like its only the flush draw, maybe the straight draw. Mayybe he’s getting out of hand with an 8, and maybe hes got the non-suited A. but I really think its most likely a flush draw. Which just came in. He also donks for value – $65 into $211. That seems too high for a blocker, but too low to push an Ax hand off or to be a missed straight bluff.
In contrast, to him, I think your hand is pretty face-up. You’ve got an A, and are betting it. maybe you’ve even got a Q kicker, and maybe a heart. So you can probably assume he’s got a solid idea what he’s up against.
So, to me, you’re beat, but $65 may be small enough to call to find out. You aren’t beating anything betting for value, and he has plenty of flush draws in his range (SB and loose). Again, your table image might impact this one.
Buuutttt I’m still new at this myself. What do others think?
I find it hard to be good here that often. Flushes and 5’s beat you. Is anyone really turning AT into a bluff to push off of a possible chop? I doubt it. No one is leading a Q here.
Literally the only thing you beat here is Ah X-offsuit. But I’m not sure how many people at this level are turning that into a bluff. Even at this price, I think it’s pretty safe to fold here.
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