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2/5 at Moose Lodge in Noblesville, IN (seriously – poker in central Indiana is weird 😉)
Mine is the effective stack at $520
UTG+2 opens to $15; HJ and BTN both call
I 3-bet to $60 from SB with KsKd (should this 3-bet have been bigger?)
BB folds; UTG+2, HJ and BTN all call
Flop is Qd8d3c
I bet $200 into $245 (too much? Is checking for pot control a better option?)
UTG+2 snap-shoves for my remaining $260
UTG+2 is fairly new to the table, and I’m new to this location, so I don’t know much about him; the table in general has been quite active
HJ and BTN fold; I tank and call; he shows 8s8h for a flopped set which holds up
If I give him only sets in his range, I’m clearly not getting the right odds to call. But if he has any flush draws (e.g. AJdd, ATdd, JTdd) I have the 30+% equity I need (pot laying me ~3.5:1). Is that wishful thinking or was it okay to call the shove here?
CheersYour 3b preflop was too small with 3 people in the pot. 80+ seems better there, maybe even more because you are out of position.
Your bet on the flop is basically all in. Anyone who calls is mostly going to call the rest off later due to your stack in relation to the pot. You wouldn’t even have a half pot better going foward. Check calling seems better, like you said, for pot control. Hard to put him on a set exactly though not knowing anything about the playerI agree with the others about a bigger 3B pf (oop and a few limpers).
On the flop, I tend to bet around halfpot in 3bet pots, I would’ve cbet something between 125-150 (into that $245 pot). I think we got value to get here vs Qx, fd, gutshots (or combo draws) JT, J9, T9 (those hands might get folded pf though)… we can assume that AA would most likely 4bet pf, QQ may call, if we get raised on the flop, I guess it looks like a set (or a loosely played Q8).
Maybe (depends on history with villain(s)) maybe he could raise JTdd as a semi-bluff, but i feel there’s not a lot of semi-bluff or bluffs in their ranges (perhaps AXdd… ATs+? Do villains defend A-rag suited in 3b pots?).
I think that, by default, I would assume their raise on the flop represents value more often than not. Would he raise tptk for value? (Would be a bit overplayed imo, but villain might do so?)
Beside AQ, I don’t feel we beat many value hands in that spot.
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