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Had some history with the villain…read commentary at the end for backstory.
https://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/33925
First, I play smaller stakes, but I still wanna give my humble opinion.
First time I watched the replay, I guessed villain’s hand… then I realized I might have been influenced by the title 😉 I watched it 2 or 3 more times… and here’s my reflexion.
PF squeeze is fine, I like it. Flop, villains donk, I don’t see anything else but a call. He can be leading with an ace, small chance of a 9, and can he have a small-mid pocket pair? Anyway, I’d call too.
Turn, A999, villain checks, I’m not quite sure about the bet there. I think I put villains most likely on an ace, or a 9 (maybe sometimes on a mid pair). But would he call turn with 66-77? So I kinda a feel like we bet for value, but we’ll only get called by Ax. (or 9x).
River, villain leads out for a shove… b/c/b… smells like a 9 to me… I really think we can only chop at best… I know you felted him earlier with a small pair when he bluffed away his stack on a combo draw (nice call btw), that’s a precious piece of info. But when I think about it, would he still be trying to bluff you, knowing that you can call him light? The only reason I see a call here would be if I think villain’s trying to chase us out of a chop pot. That’s probably why you called. But I’m pretty sure we never win here. At best, we take our money back, at worst we lose our stack.
And with his line… like if he has an ace, I think he knows he’s at worst chopping the pot, he could have checked the river to give you the opportunity to “bluff”. And had you checked back, he either chop, or win, and he doesn’t lose much value vs hands you’d checked back. Now with a 9 instead, he must lead the river, too risky to lose value there on a check… you might even chose to check back with Ax. And would he donk the flop with Ax? Idk, maybe, maybe not. I just feel his line looks like a 9.
Not an easy spot, but I think I’d try to find a fold. And had we checked back on the turn, maybe it would be different. Actually if we check back the turn, I guess we kinda have to call the river
Good points! I did have a feeling like he might’ve wanted to bluff me just to show me that he could do it and get it thru…bit of course I was wrong…he slammed the cards down and punched the leather…the equivalent of dunking right in someone’s face in basketball LOL
It’s really just another testament to the fact that people just don’t often bluff at this level. They’re afraid to get called and lose what might be a good bit of money.
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