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Hero (UTG): mid 20s Asian, TAG image ($500)
Villain (SB): 30s Mexican guy, raised a couple time pre-flop, took it down pre ($450)
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Hero with QcQd raises to $20, MP, HJ, BTN, SB all call.Flop: 2h5c8s ($94)
Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Only villain calls.
Turn: 4h ($194)
Villain leads for $125, Hero?
Am I ever good here? I haven’t seen him play very many hands, but when he donks here I feel like he will have a draw here more often then not. Also, we went to the flop 5-ways. Initially I put him on a straight draw and we can discount AA and KK since there wasn’t a 3-bet. Thoughts?
Its hard to say with out knowing more about the player, so you kind of have to feel it out at the table, but to me it seems like he can easily have a couple hands here. $20 call in the SB I think narrows his range to a small/middle pair that he wants to set mine with multi way, or some people really like to play suited connectors here. Either way he needs to flop big to stay around post flop.
When he check/calls the flop bet it makes me think he hit a piece, or has an over pair (99 or TT maybe?). If he hit the flop it’s likely either his set and he is slow playing it because no flush draw, or maybe 67 for the open ended draw and he thinks he might have some implied odds here? A hand like 56 or 78 seem ruled out unless this player is they type to convince himself he is up against AK, or he thinks he can get you to fold TT JJ QQ type hands. Is he that sophisticated of a player? dunno.
Anyway, with the 4h on the turn basically making you behind everything now. terrible card for your range. But I think the lead out makes the straight less likely. So many players hit the out then will check OOP to milk it some. Especially since he never took the lead and has no real reason to assume you will check behind. With an over pair, you will likely want to protect it from a 3rd heart or another straight card right? So a bet from you would seem logical if he were to check here. no? So why would he lead into you?
I think the fold here is fine with out some kind of read on the guy to make you believe otherwise. It could be possibly he had a hand like 7h8h and floated your Cbet, then saw more outs on the turn and decided to put his money to work. But it feels more to me like he hit a set and the 4 scared him so he was “protecting” it with his lead out.
I am curious to your thoughts on this after you think about his table image and betting patterns from the rest of your session. Hope this helps some.
I can imagine your villain having some pair+flush draw combos on the turn. 7h8h, Ah8h thru Jh8h, Ah5h. He’s calling 15$ to win 90$ in the pot 105 if the big blind calls. I’ve seen plenty of people call with those kinds of odds. Plus it makes his hand easy to play, hit good cards or fold. Personally I think your hand is too strong to fold on the turn unless you’re convinced he only does this with sets and I think most people would check raise with their sets since he’s got no reason to think you won’t bet.
I think he had a combo draw and was trying to set his own price to get to the river. Basically if he’s willing to call a 120$ bet from you, why not take the lead and give himself a chance to win when you fold. If he thinks you’ve got AK or AQ and just c-bet because everyone c-bets. Then he could be ahead with his pair and he’s got a good idea of what cards are bad for him and can check fold if he wants and if you just call the turn he’s got a good chance of getting to showdown without another bet being made.Just my opinion. I could be way wrong.
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