A on the river

[Jerry Garcia]

Hey guys here is a link to my hand please comment. http://mysmp.me/vh_hAr

I feel like I made a huge mistake here and I wonder if anybody would have found a fold somewhere along the way.

[Dave Thompson]

Pre-flop: I would tend to make the 3-bet sizing a little bigger. Maybe 25-30 would have been better. It’s quite surprising that the BB didn’t 4-bet KK pre-flop. Was the BB a passive player?

Flop: When the BB leads out for almost full pot and the initial pre-flop raiser shoves for 175 big blinds, this should definitely set off some alarm bells it would seem. I think you just have to consider the players and what you think their ranges are based on what you’ve observed previously in the game. If the PFR is a big gambler, then including a lot of flush draws and combo draws in his range is okay. If PFR is relatively solid, on the other hand, then you might want to find a fold. Always remember that whatever range you assign has to be a hand that would have played earlier streets as they happened. So in this case that means and hand that would have called your 3-bet pre-flop. This may help to narrow your range analysis. Also you have to consider what the BB’s range is and how likely he is to call. BB’s range can obviously be quite a bit wider than PFR’s range, though, since he led rather than raised. It was a donk lead though, so that suggests strength, but maybe not as strong as a set (which would likely check to induce) and 2-pair is unlikely on this board.

Overall: I don’t think your play is terrible, but you might have found a fold on the flop. It all comes down to range assignment and assessing the tendencies of your opponents. A lot of aggressive players would indeed shove a combo draw in that spot. Given your effective stack of 203, you were getting a bit less than 2 to 1 on a call. Add in the times when the draw will hit, and this means the PFR needs to be on a draw or an overpair about 50% of the time in order to make your call profitable. So that’s the key question. Do you have the best hand roughly half the time in that spot? If the answer is yes, then it’s a good call. If no, then you should fold.

[william k mccollam]

I guess you could find a fold there – although I don’t know I could have in the heat of the action.

In order for your AA to be good on the flop (cause if your behind – you’re way behind), you need that utg+1 player to have called a 3bet pre with 2 non-Ace hearts. And have the balls to 3bet huge over a donk lead (who has a set in his range). That would require a certain type of player – one that assesses the blind as making a speculative donk and you as having an overpair that he can get you off. If you don’t read this player as having that kind of imagination – then I suppose you could find a fold.

[Halliday]

I think your analysis is spot on after, although to say it’s horrible play is been a bit hard on yourself. It’s the hardest thing in poker to fold aces no matter what the situation is you just don’t want to let them go. theres 6 combos of sets your losing too and i would argue less realistic combos of flush draws because there is kq,qj and maybe kj but that’s about it. The 10 and 8 eliminate a lot of suited connecters. So by that it’s a fold and also actually if it was 50:50 you do still lose money in the long run because if your right you still only win 70 percent of the time but if your wrong you lose 90 percent of the time which makes it an unprofitable play in the long run. Having said all that it’s always easier analysing a hand than actually playing one and I would still struggle to lay Aces down there. 🙃

[Author]

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