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Background of the game: Some interesting table dynamics with certain players being quite aggressive, opening with wide ranges…
We have AA in MP, open to $21, action is as follows:
CO calls, Button calls, BB calls…
4 ways to a flop of 5-7-8 rainbow
BB checks to me, I lead for $80 into $84
CO calls, Button now raises to $200, BB folds, I call, CO folds
Pot is now ~$560 (reason for my flat here is that the Button seems to be a pretty tight, solid player, havent seen him get out of line at all, the 3-bet on this flop is setting off alarm bells for possible flopped sets that he can have)
Turn is brick 2, I check
Button now thinks briefly, and jams for ~$450….I go into the tank for a very long time, probably 6-7 mins….the only things he is really repping here are flopped sets, I think KK will 3-bet preflop, and I dont see him bluffing in this spot. Only additional info I get from him is he is visibly upset by the fact that he “could not see my stack of large denomination chips” To me this says that he thinks he should have bet smaller to get me to call if he thinks I can get away from it. I am only getting ~2:1 to make this call.I end up folding AA face up….think I saved myself money, opinions?
I hope you were facing a flopped set. Because maybe, maybe he could have had a big pocket pair, put you on an Ax hand that didn’t hit the flop, and thought he was ahead then jammed consequently. I think I would have had folded too. He didn’t react seeing your hand ?
What would the button jam with in this spot? Just sets? Would this player 3-bet with AQs+, JJ+ pre-flop? Is he only flatting on the button with his entire range? Is he only jamming with two-pair+? trips+?
I think he had 99 or TT. I don’t see him raising a set in position in a four way pot, especially with a rainbow board.
His jam on the turn indicates he is scared of over-cards on the river. I would have called off.
It was a nice bet by the button, as the flop hits his range far better than it does yours. I still don’t think he jams sets like that though.
Tough spot…
Agreed, tough spot. He definitely could have flopped two pair, and knows he is vulnerable to getting counterfeited by an over pair. 78 suited, 57 suited would make sense. But if the board is rainbow, that’s only 4 total combinations.
You didn’t mention if the 2 on the turn matched one of the suits on the flop putting a back door flush draw in play. I also don’t think he is jamming a flopped set, or a fortunate flopped straight as he wants to get value, but sometimes players (particularly in lower stakes) get worried if the board starts to get suited or starts to straighten out and just start over betting to force others out.
I can definitely see 99 to QQ playing this way. Especially QQ as its so high up in his range, and 99 as even if he gets called he has additional outs to the straight.
Now looking at it from his point of view, he saw you open to $21 pre-flop, which seems big to me in a 1/2 or 1/3 game. If this is standard in this game, then no problem, but if not, would he consider this a sizing tell, indicating a big pair in your hand? If so, then I think his river and turn betting indicates a hand that is ahead of you, as he probably thinks you will call.
All things considered, I think I lay this one down too.
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