Aces on Paired Board All In

[nuttnice Poker]

Golden Nugget 5max 1/2 NL uncapped
220eff
5$ UTG Straddle
CO, BTN call
HERO SB raise 20$ w AA
fold, call, call, call
Qd2d2c 82$
bet 35, fold, fold, call
Qh 152$
x, bet 30, call
4c 212$
x, all in, fold

v in position represented a Q

hind sight:
– I block combinations of AQ,
– Board blocks combinations of QQ
– QJ, KQ, QT were supposed to be a tough call into a pre flop bet
– better pre flop bet would have been 4x the straddle plus 1x for each limper: 30$ may have better narrowed the field for AA with two limpers?

regret folding: must win ~28%
decent show down value

during the previous hand, v all in bluffed someone on the river, who accidentally showed their small flush hand on the turn. I felt like opponent was trying to use his bluffing image for a pay off into my fold decision.

[Chuck M]

Hey nuttnice!

Not an easy spot on the river there.

Imo, I would’ve raised bigger pre ($5 straddle is the new blind, so it’s kind onf a 2/5 hand) 2 limps, plus we’re oop, but i know you know it. Somewhere between 25-35 seems good (depends on your table)

I like the flop, oop mw, id bet bigger, well 40 ish isn’t far from 35. Maybe id even go around 50-55, getting value vs Qx, KK (?) Some mid pairs, flush draws. Getting hu here and left with a psb or so, on the turn, would be nice i think.

Turn is not a good card… I like the x/c

River when he jams, I think id fold too. I think he often has Qx. Now maybe if you got info on him being capable of shoving light there, like 55-JJ, or bluffing with busted diamonds, could be a call. But without such info, I would consider folding, i think (if i compare with the games i usually play in). I might be wrong, but, id expect to lose quite often.

And as opposed as you said, I personally think there are quite a few Qx in his range, calling ip (defending the button / closing the action) in a single raised pot, I think he may well have KQ, QJ, QT, even some Q9s, and he may also play wheel aces like A2s (or even offsuit if he vpip a lot)

My humble upinion 😉

[Chuck M]

Oh i ran the hand into a calculator, giving the Qx that would make sense, some A2, we lose, obv

If we add a few combos of busted fd, we can get about 18-20% equity.

If villain overplays some pocket pairs, we got 28-30%

If he plays 77-JJ, and if he flats KK twice pf, we’re closer to a flip, so would be a call.

Depends on your reads/history with him
Like would he check back to get to showdown with his midpairs? give up busted draws?

[Author]

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