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Alright, single hand this time. Villain is newer to the table, and I don’t know him. He’s effective stack at about 200.
I have pocket 10s in EP, I open to $10. I get 4 callers…pretty normal on the night, lots of chasers (flush and straight chasing).
Flop comes 853 with two clubs. I bet 30, and get 3 callers.
Turn is an off suit 2. I bet 50, villain to my left makes it 165. Other two snap-fold. I tank for about 2 minutes then fold.
The guy claims he just had draws. I didn’t see him play any draws that way the rest of the night, but idk. I was thinking that I have to call 115 more to win 385, which isn’t ideal (I think? I still struggle with those numbers). Additionally, while he claims a draw, he could easily have a set as well. 10s are probably about the bottom of my range here, and the way I’ve played the hand he clearly knows I have an overpaid.
Is this a bad fold? I know I have at times been afraid to lose my earnings – I’m not afraid of losing my buy-ins, but when I get my stack bigger I’m afraid of it becoming smaller. Stupid and wrong I know, I’m working on it.
Thoughts are appreciated. As another note, I think I should size my turn bet way up. 50 into about 160 is too small. If I bet more around 100, then I easily call any raises, and I’m not put in this spot.
Opinions on checking the turn?
I don’t disagree with the fold since you know nothing about new player at the table, his range, his style, etc. Could have a set or 4-6 for all anyone knows. I trust what I see people doing, not what they say or what they say they had.
Also, don’t stress on the loss aversion bias too intensely. We’re only human.
GL
You did the math right. Let me break it down if someone wants to see how it works.
Pre-flop: You bet $10, 4 callers. $10 x 5 = $50.
Flop: You bet $30, 3 callers. $30 x 4 = $120. Total pot is $170.
Turn: You bet $50, he jams for $165. That adds $215 to the pot, making the total pot $385 ($215 + $170). You have to call $115 to win $385, giving you a little better than 3:1 on a call, meaning you have to be right about 25% of the time.
On to the hand: No problems with pre-flop and flop. I agree with your comment on the turn – if you’re betting should have been bigger. Your flop bet was 60% pot, your turn bet was like 30% pot.
As far as the turn decision, nothing really came in. 64 came in, as well as A4. Maybe a few sets or goofy 2-pair combos (which you can counterfeit any 2-pairs he has). Those are the hands that beat you. Hands you beat are all of his flush draws, 67 for the straight draw, and his 1 pair hands.
Your turn bet looks weak and looks like a blocker bet. Not saying that villain sees it the same way, but that bet into that size of a pot is begging to be attacked. I probably call here.
Your first mistake was raising to ten preflop. You said it yourself 4 callers is pretyy standard for a ten dollar raising size. So I would have raised it to 15 or 20. Once put in that situation however as played you have to shove their. Two many draws in his range or hands you beat: any 4 for an open ender and any two clubs as well as pocket fours, sixes, nines, sevens, and top pair, etc. One of the worst case sceneraios is that he has two pair in which case the board can still pair for you to win with a higher two pair. Your not supposed to like the situation and neither am I but you just have to get it in their.
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