Bad Beat Hit @ Hollywood Toledo – Did I waste of $95?

[Ian McClellan]

To set the scene – Bad Beat Jackpot hit at Hollywood Casino last night around 9:30p ($66k) – and the tables were FULL of action. There was a coinciding high-hand promotion ($250/$500 alternating 1/2 hours 3p-12a) and there were 13 $1/2NL tables going and 2 $2/5 tables. Room share of the bad beat was $241.05, but people were playing like they had each won a gold bar. Good for business. At the point I played this hand though, there were a couple guys away from the table, and the villian had just turned his $100 buy-in to a triple-up almost $100. Those two guys he felted had left the table, so we were sitting with 7. There was a fish at the table who was just DONKING money – a total chip pinata, so everyone was getting in when he came along.

http://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/33885

So, I am in the SB and have j-10 diamonds. We are playing short-handed- I think there were 4-5 of us sitting, there might have been a guy ahead of the Villian who insta-folded pre-flop. You can watch the share-my-pair for the flow…. But I led the flop for $25 with an up-and-down, got 3 callers. Turn hit me, but also brought in the flush. Checked around, so I thought I might still be best. River was a 2h, so I led out $75 into $150, re-popped by the villian to $170 and crying-called by the fish.

The villian was a smart player – and everyone has just value-betting this fish… but I just couldn’t get away from my straight. I just couldn’t give the guy credit for the flush. Was it dumb to call the $95 re-pop into a $550 pot? I had a buddy at the table berating me for calling – like I should have kept the $95, he ‘CLEARLY’ had the flush. I felt my inner Andrew Neeme coming out, I felt like it was too good to let go for that price. Villian showed nut flush (%#@$@@$) and fish mucked, claiming K-Q off for 2-pair on the turn.

What do you think? $95 into ~$550 with a possible flush – waste of money?

[Chuck M]

I would’ve bet the turn, a lot of value to get from Kx and pair+draw hands. If you get raised on the turn (and fish calls) well it would be a tough spot, looks like a flush or a chop pot…
Let’s say we’re just called on the turn, do we lead river or go in c/c mode… i think it’s had to get away.

As played, since you say that villain is a smart player, he must know that the other is a fish, so villain must be raising for value here. The question is, does he value thin? Could he even value raise less than a straight? It’s a tough spot, but I think we can try and find a fold, knowing that the raiser’s never bluffing the fish here. Would he raise AK (does he flat that pf?). Or call down? Does he raise a set or 2pairs? Idk.
One cool thing tho, you already know you’ll see a showdown 🙂

[KelownaPokerDad (Matt)]

A little surprised the nut-flush didn’t bet the turn with a four-way pot… as you were.

I think with a three-way pot and having no clubs it would have been better to pot control and check-call.

[Ian McClellan]

I was pretty surprised that the nut flush just checked as well – he probably thought that either the fish or I would C-bet and he could continue to underplay the strength of his hand. I do think that a check-call on the turn and river is probably a better go overall.

Thanks for your thoughts, Matt.

[Ian McClellan]

Chuck – I appreciate your thoughts as well. I think I could have minimized the pain a little with a lead on the turn – either that or keep my line as a check/call and probably could’ve saved myself some money. I did think about the fact that I would get to see the showdown either way – but at that point I just thought there was too much in the pot to walk away for less than $100… UGH. Never made it back that night, just kinda played a little scared (never the best way to play) and ended up leaving a few hours later. Another night will come.

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