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I figured by him checking and calling he was on a draw. Not sure what I could’ve done differently. I possibly could’ve checked on the turn which would have created pot control. Anything helps!
Thanks,
Andrew Garcia
Andrew don’t second guess how you played this hand at all, it was quite good. You should be very pleased with yourself. I think you’re only second guessing because you ended up losing the pot – try not to be results oriented!
Preflop:
Excellent sizing discipline on your opening raise. Too many players use their default open size here, but it looks like you bumped it up a little bit to account for and isolate the limper.
Flop:
Clear value bet. I LOVE LOVE LOVE that you are using a big sizing on this board. This is such a wet, draw heavy board and your opponent has so many hands that can call a bet here. He could easily have worse top pairs in his range, easily have T8 and 68 for straight draws, easily have heart draws and LOTS of them because he limp/called preflop. He could probably continue with 2 club gutshots and some hands with a T in them. Good sizing. Keep it up.
On such a draw heavy board we clearly want to be calling this raise. Honesty he’s not repping too much value here and as seen above he can have limitless draws. As a limp/caller from middle position (idk how passive you think this guy is) he should never have KK or 99. He may have 77 sometimes. His value hands look like two pair hair hands, but if you think he has mostly suited combos of these hands then there aren’t too many. Doesn’t look like there is too much value in re-raising unless you think he’ll get all the money in with the nut flush draw or a hand like KQ. We don’t really want to be folding out some of his weaker draws here and since we are in position we know we can always get a chance to value bet the turn if he shuts down.
Turn:
I like your analysis that if he checks here he most likely has a draw and is trying to get a free card. This is why being in his spot – out of position – sucks. You can see what he’s trying to do and then can value bet to charge his draws trying to see the river for cheap. This is why it’s ok for us to just call the flop. We don’t have to check to him on the turn and allow him to check it back for the free card. It’s possible your opponent could sometimes be checking a hand like 97 here or a hand like Ax of hearts that picked up a pair, but he NEVER HAS A SET HERE. You literally have the best hand right now 99.9% of the time.
This is MANDATORY BETTING SPOT, and I like the sizing on your turn bet. It’s actually bigger than I would make it if I were playing this hand, but that’s OK at lower stakes because people will call for the wrong price with draws. His range is so full of draws and so little value a bet like $90-$100 might be better against better competition. I just think you’ll get called just enough more frequently by draws with that size that you’ll make more money. Obviously this guy is inelastic as many low stakes players are so we want to punish his poor play with value. Obviously a bigger sizing helps us get the money in on favorable rivers as well. Overall, getting him to call an 80% pot bet is a huge win here, but don’t count on being called too frequently by draws with this sizing.
River:
If the flop and turn action were different I think you could probably go for a thin value bet on the river too. Like if he had check/called both streets it’s more likely he’d have one pair hands or two pair hands that he played passively on the turn when the ace hits your range. These hands you might be able to get some small value from with a 40-50% pot bet.
Given the turn action, I think his range is just too draw heavy going into the river to put in a bet when the heart comes. He doesn’t really have many two pair hands anymore and are we really going to get called by a hand like KJ or KQ? Doubtful. We get snapped by weak flushes and check/raised enough of the time compared to being called by worse that checking back here is fine.
Last Thoughts:
This was just unlucky that he hit his card on the river. I really like how you played this hand and I think your bet sizing was quite good. Don’t let short-term results allow doubt or fear to creep into your thought process and keep the good discipline with your bet sizing.
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