bad river call or just cooler?

[Chris]

Red Rock 1-2 NLH 9 handed, table is fairly passive, plenty of folding pre unless the hand is premium. Very few preflop raising etc. table is a little sleepy for action.

seat 9 UTG $200 stack, Seat 2 $245 stack, me $420 stack
UTG semi tight older lady limps for $2, seat 2 passive guy calls, i call with Q8s one from the cut off, SB folds and BB call.

Flop is Js 10s 9h. UTG lady bets $7, seat 2 min raises to $15. I want to reraise but decide to call because i want to keep UTG lady in the hand with a good pair. I put seat 2 on 99,10,10, JJ, flush draw or two pair. I dont think he has Q8 or KQ. I felt he would have bet more with KQ to push out the flush draw. I call, BB fold, lady reluctantly calls.
POT $48.

Turn is 4c, UTG checks, seat 2 bets $55 leaving about $180 behind. I call again because i want to keep UTG lady in the hand. As long as the board doesnt pair, i feel my straight is good and i have a redraw to the flush which i am not sure i want to hit based on what seat 2 has. She folds.
I now put seat 2 on JJ, 10,10, 99, Q8 or KQ. I am sure seat 2 will shove on the river with his holdings unless a spade hits. ( i think my play has made it look like i am on the draw for the flush).
Pot $160

River is a blank. Seat 2 shoves for $180. I tank for several minutes, though the hand has played much like i expected. If he has KQ only, i am beat. Any other holding i win. I call and he turns over KQos.

I am not results based, but later replaying the hand in my hand, i thought perhaps i should have put him on KQ exactly with his $55 bet on the turn, and not a set as i had previously based on his min raise. Perhaps i should have called the $55 and fold on the river to his shove? I am not a calling station and can lay down hands. Unfortunately i have a rep at this casino for being a tight player that it is had to get chips from. This makes getting action sometimes difficult.

What does anyone else think? Cooler flop or should i have folded on the river to his $180 shove?

Somehow i think folding there is a mistake the way it was played, but maybe i suck.I am sure any reraising on the flop or turn ends with both of us all in regardless. We both flopped it. He flopped the nuts with me having a straight flush redraw.

Chris

• This topic was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by Chris.

[Jameson]

I don’t know man, this isn’t going to be the most thoughtful analysis, but I’ll try. First of all, your hand reminds me of a hand I just recently posted in this forum called ‘I lost $200 just like that.’ Basically it’s a spot where you’re getting good odds and based on the play it seems like your opponent has one specific hand most of the time, but it’s also possible he might have a couple other hands that could make some sense albeit not as much sense. I like to break things down by combos, so it seems to me like he definitely has all 3 sets on the flop, and I would add top two for sure, plus 78s, q8 and kq. That’s his range pretty much no bluffs here. So that’s 22 combos you beat, and 12 you lose to and maybe like 9 max you chop with, but he might not limp every q8 so maybe 6. Ok fine, let’s go from there. The $55 bet on the turn is starting to polarize him a little bit more, not so much in the sense that he can’t have all those combos still, but it’s starting to feel like he’s really strong here, so the truth of how strong will come out on the river. Now the river shove I think is the street where you get the most information. Especially with him being out of position for the hand, when you call his big turn bet that should definitely instill some fear in him with a lot of his weaker holdings. Pretty much everything but KQ and maybe Q8. With that said, if you give him 6 combos of q8 that you chop with, you get $75 every time you make the call, but you lose $150 all 12 times he has KQ which he plays just like this every time. It all comes down to how often he does this with jj, 1010, 99. If it’s at least 6 combos you should call. So like, 2/3 of the time he has 99-jj he plays it just like this. If so, call. The problem is, isn’t jj-99 afraid of a straight themselves by the river?? Also, this is player dependent. If it’s a tight older player, they’re more likely to be. Or, they’ll still bet the river, but bet like $50 to let themselves get away from the straight. Close call, I think it might a fold but can’t blame you for calling.

• This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by Jameson.

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