Betting after the flop with ace king and hitting a an ace

[Jarrin Solomon]

Hey everyone so I have been getting absolutely crushed lately by flushes and I’m at a loss. So three sessions in a row I have gotten a big ace like ace, king suited or ace, queen suited. So in this particular hand I got dealt ace, king of diamonds and I was on the button. A guy who was utg accidentally raised to $10 cause his hand went over the betting line. So to isolate him I reraised to $20 and everyone folded. He reluctantly called the $20. Mind you this was a 1/2 table so a $20 raise is pretty significant. So the flop comes and it’s ace(h) 10 (d) queen (h) I He bet $20 on the flop and I felt he was just trying to push me out cause he really didn’t want to be in the hand. I knew from his body language he didn’t have an ace so I decided he only had about $80 behind and to push him all in thinking he would fold. When i raised he said “oh shit” like he knew he was behind because he was. He ended up calling anyway and he turns over 4 of hearts and 8 of hearts. He turns a 9 of hearts to catch the flush. My question is was pushing on the flop a good idea with top top knowing I was ahead. Or should I have pot controlled here in case he caught a flush? Thanks in advance.

[Dave Thompson]

In this specific spot, you’re roughly a 2 to 1 favorite. When you go all in, he has to call 80 to win the 80 (40 pre, plus his 20 bet, plus your 20 call) that’s already in the pot plus your raise of 80 more. So he’s getting 2 to 1 pot odds, which is the correct price. So shoving was absolutely the right play for you to make if you think he’s on a flush draw, since you’re making him pay the right price to draw to his flush. Calling was the right thing for him to do as well, since he was getting the right price. You just happened to be on the losing end of it this time, but in the long run if you bet for value when you’ve got the best hand to charge draws at least the correct price (and hopefully more by betting on later streets if they’re not all in), you’ll win more than you lose.

To address the last question you asked about pot controlling in case he hit the flush… that’s the wrong way to be thinking about it. If you think he’s drawing to a flush, what you want to do is bet enough so that he’s not getting a cheap or free card on the turn or river to try to hit his flush. If you don’t bet because you’re worried somebody might hit a flush (or a straight) on a later street, then you won’t be getting proper value from your made hands. That’s a recipe for losing money in the long run. The time to get value from draws is on the flop and turn. If you wait until the river to bet on a safe (non-flush / non-straight) run-out, they’ll just fold their missed draws and you won’t make any money postflop.

[Jarrin Solomon]

Thanks Dave! That’s what I was thinking too. I think I’ve honestly just had a bit of run bad these past few session when it came to this and then catching flushes. I’ve had this scenario quite a few times lately and it just seems I’ve lost everyone, but like you said I think in the long run I made the right play and just got caught up too. Thanks for the response and it puts my mind a little bit more at ease now that I’ve thought about it. I appreciate it.

[Jeffrey Collins]

I am wondering about the response to this post when Dave states getting 2/1 on a flush draw are the right odds for the guy with the draw. I thought it was more than 4/1 to hit your flush draw, and offering any price that was worse than that would make it unfavorable (-ev) to call? Can someone please clarify what is a proper betting price, and a proper calling price?

[Andrew Pieper]

You’re correct usually Jeff about hitting a flush draw is 4/1, it’s around 19% to hit on the next card, and many people think “Oh I hit my flush 35% of the time I can call” Of course, this 35% only applies if you’re getting to see the turn AND river, which can only be certain when your opponent is all-in, otherwise you’re making a -EV call on the flop to see the turn and then potentially face another bet. Here’s a good article that goes over it: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/odds-mistakes/
Now in this instance hero is all-in so villain will be seeing turn and river if he calls. His odds now go up from 19% to 35%. He is getting exactly 160/80 or 2:1 on a call, so his hand equity is 35% and his pod odds is 33.33%. A call is only profitable if your pot odds are greater than your hand odds (disregarding implied odds which are irrevalent in this instance, so we can see this is a slightly losing call as he’s getting slightly worse odds than his hand has.

Overall I really like the hand and think it’s pretty standard. Many people will “blocker bet” their marginal hands and draws just trying to see if they’re good or get a cheap price. Raising TPTK HU isn’t always the correct play sometimes people do overplay it, however in this instance against a villain with a short stack and FD on board I like raising all-in.

[Jarrin Solomon]

Thanks for the response Andrew! Appreciate your input.

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