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This is about Brad’s pivotal hand in Day3 of WSOP. He started the day poised to make the $, I was REALLY rooting for him to kick ass and cash…but I have three questions about this crucial hand I’d like to learn from hopefully…(disclaimer, please ignore my math if I’m off on pot-size precisely I’m going off video/etc)
I just watched your Day 3 WSOP vlog for the second time (link and time to start at bottom of post, anyone reading please watch and share thoughts) and I’m curious your hindsight (thoughts/insight/regrets?) on this hand, one of your big final hands before busting out. This one I personlly REALLY don’t think you were likely beat here but I’m wondering your thoughts on why he had you crushed enough to play the way you did and then fold…
-Scenario: Your stack’s 142k in SB w/ Blinds at 1.5k/3k (Button stack is at 193k)
-…action folds to button who raises ~min’ish to 7k
-You 3-bet to 18k w/ AhKc (monster!…I like the 3 bet here obviously but not sure about the rest…)
-BB folds
-Button/raiser calls another 11k
-Flop is Ac Js 9s
-You open to 16k (into a 40k pot…Q1: why so little here? i can understand if you WANT him to 3-bet so you can push but that’s not what happens…less than half-pot bet here doesn’t signify strength really??)
-So button raises to 35k (sensing weakness in 1/3 pot-size bet i’m guessing?)
-You smooth-call (Q2: why not shove here for your last 109k into a 74k pot? Scared of QsTs straight/flush draw? or JJ, or AJ?? or of just busting out and not cashing??)
-The Turn comes: 4s (your commentary “the flush draw gets there, so I check…”)
-He puts you all-in for your last 90k
-You FOLD…Disclaimer: I’m humbled by you Brad, so please ignore my questioning of your decision-making I just come here to learn… your game’s always on point so I don’t want to criticize…I just really don’t see you being behind here in this hand, especially on flop? Looking at it seems like the button was being aggressive after his pre-flop raise and he was sensing weakness in your small flop bet and trying to capitalize but I want to know what you were thinking.
Unbelievable Day 3 of WSOP Main Event!!! Poker Vlog Ep 32
(watch at 9min49s in…)Hey Jeff,
I remember this hand very well. What the decision really came down to was: Am I so sure that he doesn’t have AsXs, a different flush combo, AJ, JJ, or 99 that I’m willing to risk my tournament life a few hours from the money after playing 2.5 days? $15k for a min-cash is a lot of money. The player on the button was in a position similar to me in that he wasn’t a chip leader and wanted to conserve chips to hopefully at least cash too. I didn’t think he’d be very likely to be bluffing. And even if he was bluffing me on the flop with a flush draw for instance, all the flush draws got there.
I probably should’ve 3-bet bigger initially. On the flop I’m trying to get a call from a worse hand like AQ, AT, AX, QQ, KJ, QJ, JT. If he has something like a pair and a flush draw or a gutter and a flush draw then I’m really not that far ahead and I can’t bet any amount of money to get him to make a mistake by calling. I wanted to try and get money from the hands I was way ahead of. Some of those hands won’t call big bets so that’s why I down bet. I didn’t think he’d be raising with any of of those hands that I listed other than maybe AQ. Once I 3-bet, the flop really crushes my range. He did end up raising and because it crushes my range, it’s a very bad spot for him to be bluffing. I’d play it the same way with AA or JJ. Even as is I have AK, which is obviously a relatively strong hand. I call his raise and this should really set off alarm bells for him that I’ve got a good hand.
The turn is a terrible card for me. If for some reason he was bluffing I don’t beat a lot of his bluff combos anymore (even though there shouldn’t be many). I check, he shoves. After I call his raise on the flop there’s no reason for him to think I’d fold to a turn shove that’s effectively less than the pot. That’s one more reason to believe that he’s strong. I fold, leaving myself with 30 bb’s, which is plenty of chips to survive with. Survival at that point in the tournament is just so much more important than taking big risks to double up. I could’ve been drawing stone dead if the opponent had a flush or set. It wasn’t worth getting it all in there.
Well said Brad, thanks for taking the time to explain your thoughts on this man.
I can understand your motivation to survive being on the bubble, and that min-cash of $15,000 was your next goal. My initial assessment that this guy was just raising becasue he sensed weakness in your flop bet isn’t founded in anything; I trust your judgement that this guy was a tight player and since he was in a similar position/chip-stack as you, I can definitely see your line of thinking now that he probably wasn’t just raising you on the flop just because your bet was small relative to the pot. Who knows what he had but you did a good job in folding, my guess is he had something like AsQx or AJ or JJ, because if he had the flush on the turn I doubt he would have shoved. Again who knows, I respect your play, you’re the man.
I’d love to play with you and buy you a beer(s) next time I’m in Vegas, or anytime you have another meetup game I’ll be there. Looking forward to more great VLOGs, I’ve watched several other guys and yours is the best, you’re humble, hilarious and wicked smart. Keep up the good work man, cheers!
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