Call it off or fold?

[Dan]

$2-$5 at Aria. I have ~$1k, villain has me covered. Good, aggressive reg raises in ep, gets 4 calls. I call on button with J9 off, BB calls. 6 ways to the flop of QJ9, with 2 diamonds. Raiser bets $115, basically the pot, guy tanks and calls, I call. 3 to the turn, which is three of clubs (brick). He shoves all-in, other caller tanks again & folds. I have $850 left. All comments appreciated.

[Patrick]

I think I would have maybe raised on the flop because you are 3way action with a very wet board and very likely the best hand. That being said, on the turn I feel like your hand is under represented and is still likely best hand (esp with 2nd player tank folding). AA KK AQ and maybe even TT are all possible. Plus pair plus draw hands (flush or open ender?). You might be beat by top 2, or a set, but I think often enough you are good here to warrant the call.

6 way action preflop is a lot of hands out there to outflop, and had the hand played out vs someone who was not the preflop raiser, I would be more inclined to fold here I think (more worried about set, top2 or straight). But being that the preflop raiser was the aggressor the whole way, he very well could have AA, KK, AQ with A diamonds (or both diamonds? you dont say which 2 flop cards are diamonds) JT T9 (if one can be both diamonds) etc. I dont think QQ would take this line, because it folds out too many hands it can get value from.

you were 6way pre in a raised pot. you didnt give bet amount, so im going to assume $20 bet from EP raise. meaning $120 preflop pot.
$115 bet on the flop with 2 callers brings the pot to $465.
now you are heads up, facing an all in call of $850 to win $1315, or there abouts. If you are going to make this call (which I think I would based on above), why not use this money on the flop aggressively and stick in a raise? I would choose an amount that would seem to commit, because you and never getting bluffed off that. He bet $115 into 2 players on a $120 pot. other guy calls (draw?). So now pot size is $355 right? Its your action. If you raise here to $450-$525 ish (its almost half of your remaining $965 stack, I know) then what does EP raiser do? Does he jam “knowing” you “cant fold” (you can tho). If he does, you have a lot more info than you do in the line that played out, and you haven’t actually shipped it all off. None the less he is stronger than 1 pair if he does rejam. Also… top 2 or bottom set might actually fold here, so you have some equity in that. He has to worry about you AND the middle player (who is very likely on a single draw).

[Dan]

I see what you are saying Pat, with a raise on the flop. So if hero raises and then gets 3 bet, are you saying to then fold? Bcuz hero is still beating any type of drawing hands that he decided to do that with.

I dont mind this call line with intentions of calling any bet on a brick turn card, and also keep in his bluffs. AQ, AK, AA, KK and a number of drawing hands can obviously be a part of his range here, which youre beating, and could just be trying to price you out of a call with some type of draw, not realizing you flopped 2 pair, since you just called flop.

I like both lines, but with that turn card I dont think you can go anywhere. I am obviously not thrilled here, but I just think your too strong too fold, and under repped as well. If had a set or a straight here, I dont see why he would put out such a large bet when your hand doesnt look that strong in his eyes. I would think he would want to keep you in and bet smaller if he was strong.

That being said, you know he could show up with a set or a straight here sometimes. I am def not loving the situation by any means, but I dont think a call can ever be that bad here. Tough spot tho either way.

Hope my thoughts helped a little!

So what ended up happening?

[Dan]

Thank you Patrick and Dan. I appreciate your insight. Before the results, here were my thoughts mid-hand. The C-bet was quite large (pot sized bet). It appeared to me he was trying to protect a strong but vulnerable hand like AA or KK. Maybe QQ, but didn’t think so. The guy who tanked/called, tank/folded appeared to have a strong draw, like medium flush draw or a ten or maybe both. So if he folded a 10, that’s less likely bettor has one (straight). Also, would he shove with K10 (the nuts)? Should he have 10 8 (second nuts) in ep?

Honestly, I never considered raising the flop, but it is a line to consider.

[Dan]

After about 90 seconds on the turn, which is a long time for me, I found a call. He turned over K10 off for the nuts. Board paired on the river, but the Q, no J or 9 for me.

Looking back and after more time at the table, K10 off is definitely in his ep opening range. The bet on the flop is pretty standard I guess, given the wet board. From the tanker’s body language, I’m sure the bettor knew he was on a draw and he didn’t get there on the turn. His read of me may have simply been that I would call a big bet. In the end he made the right reads/bets.

[Dan]

As a footnote, later at the same table I stacked a guy with AA with 36 diamonds for $900. 😂😂

Cheers & Run Good!

[Mike]

After reading through it all and seeing the k-10 I think its just a cooler. With you having bottom 2 om the flop the only hand i am worried about is q’s and as stated i dont see him playing it that way.

Also dont see someone jamming that turn with that hand, I too call and pay him off.

[Dan]

Thanks, Mike!

[Author]

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