Can you let this go?

[Paul]

Played a marathon session in 1/2 for 27 hrs. In for $1k (after rebuys). Fluctuated between $800 and $2k across the session. 10am Saturday to 1pm Sunday. I have a brutal job that prevents me from playing often, so when I go on the weekend, I straight battle, mainly myself of when to leave.

I am a LAG. My final hand getting stacked goes as follows.

Table: The table dynamic is a bunch of OMC’s since it’s Sunday at noon. I am playing aggressively. Probably a 40-50% vpip, often 3-betting on the button or blinds at least once every 2 orbits. Probably a 70% c-bet on most flops. Villian is old asian LAG. I just previously 3 barrel insta mucked to him in an orbit prior with a missed flush draw on a 4 to a straight board, bluffed about $400 in that exchange. He had flopped top set and just check called the entire time.

Hand: UTG asian villian has $1.5k, raises a wide range (generally 6s+ and most suited connectors in any spots) to $15. I am in middle position with AcKs. I call ($550 stack). 3 calls behind.

$75 to the flop of 4s7cJd. He c-bets 35. I call. All fold else fold.

Heads up to the turn with $145 in the pot. Turn is an Ad. He donk bets $35, he doesn’t normally donk bet for the same amount ever and generally scales his bets accordingly to the pot. I perceived weakness and also assumed I was ahead, and reraised to $105. He tanks for about 30 seconds, then open rips. I’m sitting with $410 to call. I was thinking he could have several combos here, 23s, 56s, sets, 78s, 89s 910s, 10Qs, 10Js, 10Ks, overpairs, and two pairs.

Can I ever be good here?

[Sam]

Hi Paul, interesting spot you got here.

First off, just wanna address preflop play: Can you talk about why you flatted preflop? It seems like a standard 3bet spot with such a strong hand in AKo, especially given that you are a LAG and can get value from tons of worse hands. Now you are going to a 5 way flop out of position with AKo, which seems like a pretty crappy spot.

As played, I think a fold on the flop is warranted given that he just c-bet into 4 people. Forget the fact that he has overpairs, sets, etc. in his range: that board is awful for AK and while it doesn’t necessarily hammer anyone’s range, it is certainly better for all 3 players behind than yours, and any of them could either have a monster, or put in a squeeze against two LAGs here.

Once you call, you spike a pretty awesome turn card. When he bets the same size, in general this seems like a blocker bet, just kinda a scare card for his range (overpairs), since you heavily block strong aces. He may also choose to do this with sets, hoping the ace hit you, but it shouldn’t too often, given you are far more likely to have jacks and other pocket pairs in your range, or specifically AJ or maybe A7. Especially in 1/2, I am more geared to believe this is less a value bet than a scared bet that doesn’t really know what to do when a scare card comes.

So let’s talk about your raise: I am assuming this is a raise for value, because your hand is pretty damn strong. If it is, let’s consider what hands villain can call with. Well, you are a LAG and have history, so I hope you make this raise believing you can get value from A9, AT, AQ, and even QQ and KK, because if not this raise doesn’t make much sense. If we throw in every combo draw that makes a little bit of sense, like KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, 8d9d, 9dTd, and 8d6d, we have a fair amount of worse hands that can call. Now the better hands that will continue: 77, JJ, 44 if he can open with it, AJ, and A7s, as a generous opening range. I count about 32 worse combos that can call (in a perfect scenario) and 15 better hands that can call (opening his range up). These will all depend on your assumptions about how he plays against you, but I think these are a little too ambitious to warrant a raise here. Is villain really going to stack off with QQ or KK here? Once you raise, you are threatening almost the entire effective stack, remember that. Also, does he really have all of those combo draws in his range? This would also assume that all those worse hands also elected to bet the turn, which also seems a bit unlikely. You are basically counting on getting your whole stack in against this guy in a multiway pot with one pair that was opened UTG and he double barreled with. Too many things have to go your way, and for all these reasons, I’m not a fan of the raise, and would like to see a call here and keep your range a bit wider, and probably evaluate the river.

But we got here, and now villain pretty quickly rips it in against you. Now you said this took only 30 seconds: for that reason, I’m going to heavily discount QQ and KK here, that would have a really tough decision to make. I’m probably also going to discount most of the worse value hands that he has unless your image is so unbelievably awful he is just gonna stack off with AT immediately here. For combo draws, KdQd makes a bit of sense, but only if he is so crazy that he can bet into 4 players with overs and a back door flush draw. Same for the other draws.

Sets might call some of the time and let you hang yourself on the river, but could also look to get it in here on a semi-wet board. Two pair would definitely play like this a lot of the time.

The bottom line is this: I think you are beat a lot of the time, and in a vacuum, I don’t think this call makes much sense. HOWEVER, you raised for value, so it seems if you were trying to get it in on the turn here, you are supposed to stack off, or this is just a bit of a disaster. I think this can be avoided if you 3-bet preflop, or fold the flop, or just call the turn. Once you raise the turn, this puts you in a bit of an awful spot.

[Paul]

Solid analysis Sam. Across the session, I saw AK about 8 times and this was the only time I didn’t raise/3bet. I felt like with OMC’s behind that a 3bet to like 35 – 50 will almost always push them out. There wasn’t anyone behind me that was aggressive to worry about so I thought the more the merrier. In retrospect, if I did 3 bet and we went heads up in position, he would’ve called my 3 bet. He would’ve check called my c bet on flop. Then probably led on turn or check raise turn. The river was a J so there was literally no way he would’ve folded as he had the 2nd nuts. And, I probably would’ve called a lead on the river depending on the size unless he ripped river after I called his check raise on the turn. In retrospect, I still prefer the raise, but I shouldn’t have called the overbet jam. I did raise because I thought I was ahead and was getting value from less. It seemed like a blocker bet in order to draw for another card, or maybe a pocket pair like 8s, 9s, or 10s, Qs, or Ks. I don’t necessary agree that if you raise you’re always looking to get it in. After the fact, his bet was more along the lines of ‘I drilled the flop and turn so what could you possibly continue with’. This hand was in line with how to minimize losses. I was just a donkey that called, mainly because I stayed for 27 hrs like a pleb.

[Author]

Posts