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This is at a 2-2-3 NL game.
Villain: argo player who’s always playing at the casino (I think he might play for a living); $300 effective
Hero: TAG, $600
V opens $11 UTG (usual openings are $15-25). Based on small opening size, especially UTG, I put V on small-mid pocket pair, or suited connectors. However, V is capable of switching it up and opening small even with large premium hands, hoping that someone will re-raise.
I call in late position with 5♠️ 5♥️ . 2 other callers.
$44 to the flop. A♥️ Q♦️J♥️ . V leads $15, I call since I didn’t think V had an Ace. Other 2 callers fold.
$74 to the turn. Turn is Q♥️. V again bets $15:$74. I call $15.
$104 now to the river. River is a brick, 3♣️. V thinks for a couple of seconds and over bets $150.
At this point, I go into the tank. V made a great polarizing bet. Either he has the nuts, or he’s completely bluffing.
What do you put V on? Is he repping a boat? He could have raised $11 pre-flop with QJ, but would he only bet $15:$44 on the flop with 2 hearts? I doubt it. Same logic if he had raised with AQ preflop.
What if he was repping a flush? $15:$44 on the flop, $15:$74 on the turn once the third ♥️ came. I feel if he made his flush on the turn, $15:$74 is quite a small bet – unless it was a blocker bet since the 2nd Queen came out. And if he was repping a flush, isn’t he scared that I could have a boat?
His play didn’t make sense to me. However, I ended up resisting my hero call with my 5♠️ 5♥️ because I was afraid that he may have been C-betting with a higher pocket pair that once he made the C-bet, he had to “continue telling a story”. And since I didn’t re-raise him at any point during the hand, he read that was weakness and continued barreling.
However, looking back at it, I think I should have made the hero call and would have been happy to see some sort of suited connectors that completely missed.
Thoughts? Did his play make sense to you? What would he have been betting with?
Pre flop: call is fine, your set minning most of the time save for the all low card flops where you get straight draws mixed in as well. A big question is did you have position on the 2 other callers if you do some recommendations might change. The big question is how many hands is this guy opening from UTG, 30%, 40%, 20%?
Flop: Just about the stone worst flop for us. The only thing we flop is a backdoor flush draw and we will have a baby flush, not super strong on a 4 card to a flush board. You logic of “V doesn’t have an A” is a bit flawed, he might not but what about the other two players in the hand? If they were to act behind you then you need to fold. Even with no A V could still have hands like KQ suited, KTs for the straight and maybe even KQo. Even his story telling hands, TT, 99, KK have you crushed and improve on a number of turn cards. You improve on only a heart and you improve to a draw. If you had players behind you to act this is a fold no questions asked. Regardless you call and get heads up.
Turn: Tiny bet on a paired and flush draw board. Truthfully, you have almost no business calling here. Literally the only hands you beat at this point are T9o, K8o, 89o etc. You beat no pairs, can only improve to beat super random 34s, 23s or hit a two outer to beat 2 pair hands like AK, AJ, KJ. By calling here I think you over rep your small pair here, this could have been a raise to see where you are at, something like $70 if you think he is just trying to story tell.
River: a blank we don’t improve and opponent bets 1.5x pot. What bluffs make sense here, KK with Kh, 88+ with a heart and maybe A9s or ATs. The only bluffs you CAN beat are like T9o or K9o. Against an aggro player who is not playing every hand, especially with a mixed betting size, I would expect 88+ some suited connectors that turned a flush and boats wike QJs, AQs or even trips with KQ. If you got bluffed, which I don’t think you did, it was an amazing bluff that should not have worked. If you really think he is bluffing you need to raise because you can’t even beat some of his bluff hands like TT or 88.
TBH, I didn’t take any notes during this hand. I’ve recalled the story to the best of my ability. Next time I should take better notes!
I appreciate your feedback. As much as I wanted to hero-call him, maybe I should just pick better spots!
I think one more thing to learn here is you need to go into hands with a plan. You have a low pocket pair 4-ways. Hands like this in this situation should really be played to set-mine only – you hit a set or you fold. Sure, you can flop a straight draw and that’s worth contintuing, but too often you are just behind. There’s just so many random cards that beat you that even if you think he’s bluffing he could still have a hand that beats you. Just best to let it you, you’re not good here enough for this is be profitable.
You’re right – but argh! Gotta let the ego go..
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