Did I miss value?

[Steve]

Here’s one of the more bizarre hands I played last week while in Vegas.
Background: At MGM 1 -2 game, Villian is middle aged woman who had been playing for about 30 minutes and had already 3-bet shoved $80 with J 10 off in mid position and beat A Q when she hit a 10.

A few hands later she has about $140 (I cover her) and raises to $12 from mid position. I defend BB with Ad 7d. We are heads up.

Flop is A A J rainbow. I check and she bets only $6. So I min click it back to see where I’m at and she calls the extra $6.

Turn is a 9 putting two clubs on board. I lead for $20, then she min clicks it back for $20 more, leaving her about $76. I’m like, “what the what?!” Confused, I just call.

River brings an offsuit Q. I check planning to call. She checks back. When I show her the Ace, she says, “oh, you do have the Ace,” and mucks.

I think I missed value, but my friends say she could have had anything so my low variance default style of play was correct.

What say you all fine folks?

[Kevin Rex]

Interesting hand. In this spot you’re either way ahead or way behind. If your opponent has an ace you’re probably smoked and drawing to three outs – although from your description of her she could have worse aces. That being said, I think this is a situation where treading somewhat lightly is merited. If you create a very large pot by playing this hand more aggressively than you did, against most opponents you’re going to be punting your stack off to AT or better. Do you really think she’d be willing to stack off with QQ or KK on an AA board? Maybe sometimes, but that’s too small a % of her range to be getting all the $ in. She has a range advantage in this spot so you can’t go blasting away for value.

Given the fact that she did NOT have an ace, you probably won the maximum here. You basically got a full street on the flop ($12 into $25) and a street and a bet + minraise on the turn for $40 into $49. I don’t think any lines make sense really other then check/calling all the way down and betting for value if she checks back any street. You definitely should not be 3betting the turn or leading river. You would definitely be overplaying your hand. Your friends are right – she could have every hand with an ace that beats you, pocket jacks, etc. Even if you DID do those things is she really going to call with a hand that is worse than yours? Weaker aces is pretty much it, and i think she has more strong aces than weak aces. It does end up sucking that she just checked back the river instead of bluffing off more money into you, but I think check/calling the river hoping to induce a bluff is CERTAINLY the correct line after the turn raise. Seems she is the type of player you should allow to make mistakes by betting instead of making mistakes by calling.

Obviously this hand plays very differently if you were in position. If, say, you were on the button, you should just call down 3 streets and let her bluff money into you. If she checks, then value bet. Only way I could see raising being justified is if she keeps doing these tiny 1/3 pot bets. Then raising the turn might be in order.

[Steve]

Thanks for the input Kevin. In the heat of battle, I do tend to default to lower variance plays. I may be results oriented in this one.

[Author]

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