difficult river decision

[Nick]

http://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/31892

QsQd early position raised to 12. One caller, a pro from late position. I had seen him grind very well for a couple hours; he was capable of aggression and bluffing. Not the best choice for opponent. Flop Ts9c3d. Bet 22 into 27, called. He probably has a one pair hand like AT or maybe KQ. Turn is 3h. Pretty good unless he has A3s. I bet 40 into 71, called. River is a bad card, Jc. Lots of his holdings, KQ, JJ, JT all are beating me. I figured a check would induce a large bet so decided to make a defensive bet of 60. However he went all in anyway. Difficult spot; decided to lay it down. Not sure the best river action.

[Laurens]

first of all, you beat holdings like J10, 109, J9… as you also have 2 pair. If he is a decent pro as you said, he should raise hands like JJ pre ( if he is playing GTO). Also I don’t think he will continue on the flop with A3, certainly not with that bet size of yours ( love that by the way). Even to continue with KQ after your turn bet ( he still only has a gut shot, if not drawing dead to our pocket 10’s, 9’s) is very rare. he would never jam A10 of K10 as that hand is good enough to call and be right a couple of times. I would put him on a flopped set (6 combos), 2 pair hand like 10 9,j9… and top pair + straight draw ( QJ, KJ ). I think you have to make the call here with QQ. certainly because you block hands like KQ. I might consider folding AA here, but KK or QQ would be a call because off the blockers.

I didn’t saw the sizing of the shuff, but I think you have to call it off anyway. QQ is one of the best hands you will have here, apart from KQs or JJ, so I think you got bluffed there.

[Jesse Anderson]

Since not everyone can view SMP, the starting stack size is $275, grinder has him covered.

Pre-flop:
Nothing to say here. I dislike large raises preflop but most people aren’t comfortable playing 5 and 6 way pots and no one folds for $7 at $1/$2.

Flop:
This bet is polarizing and range-capping. You never make this bet with, say, TT or 99. This “pro” is able to know this and puts you now on either a middle pocket-pair trying to protect your equity, an over-pair or unimproved over-cards looking to take it down with a big c-bet. He’s very likely to call here with 100% of his preflop calling range. Don’t be too quick to assign a range to good opponents who are in position against you.

Turn:
This is a good card for you, mostly in that it’s not a good card for your opponents range. Since your range as an EP raiser is ahead of your opponents range as a late position caller, anything that doesn’t help him is good for you. Your bet is a bit on the smallish side, and from a strictly GTO perspective I’d say you should be betting bigger. A bigger bet narrows your opponents range more, and decreases the stack-to-pot ratio (SPR), making river decisions easier. You’re near the top of you range (only KK and AA are better since you’d not bet sets so hard on the flop), so you should be looking to pile money in. You also are now beating the occasional T9.

His call isn’t that concerning, really. Given how small your bet is (giving him nearly 3-1 express odds), and perhaps sensing that you’re a bit gun-shy, he still might call pretty wide. I’d range him as all open-enders, all top pairs, a few gut shots (KJ/KQ specifically) and a few random air hands where he thinks he could take it down on the river.

River:
“I figured a check would induce a large bet, so I bet…”

Think about what you’re saying. This is exactly what you want in this situation. You dodged all the Aces and Kings in the deck, the river didn’t pair the top or second cards, and you’re blocking most straight possibilities. What’s more, this LOOKS like a scary card, meaning your opponent will be inclined to turn his hand into a bluff.

You instead make a blocker bet, which is something you shouldn’t be doing against any decent player because it looks like exactly what it is. Maybe you got bluffed, maybe you didn’t. No one can know for sure, but I’d be wiling to bet he raises you here with any hand that makes it to the river, rather he has you beat or not.

You should check this river card against this opponent. Against weaker opponents your bet is actually good, but not as a blocker bet; betting for thin value. You’ll be amazed how many times you’ll get called by QJ, KJ, AT, JT, J9 on these rivers when you bet small like that. It’s how you make your money in small stakes games.

I think you just out thought yourself here. It feels to me like you’re playing on scared money, which is a good way to lose. Make sure you can actually afford to lose what you’re playing with, and can afford multiple re-buys if you do lose a hand like this, and you’ll take the fear of being stacked out of the equation.

[Author]

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