Disaster at Bellagio

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  • #1709
    Jameson
    Participant

    Share my pair hand here

    I took an impromptu trip to Vegas, and after playing at the Mirage the night before, decided to play at Bellagio in the morning. I’m really disgusted with myself with how I played this hand, particularly the ending. I’m going to recap and go over my thoughts in the hopes I can reconcile my mistakes to avoid something similar in the future. My stack in this hand is about $160. So I open UTG + 1 with KK to $10. I would have liked to go $15, but I had been raising to around $10 with most of my range, so I didn’t want to open with a sizing tell. There are 3 callers, including the BB a drinking fellow who was not very good at all, and who I considered to the best player at the table sitting two to my left.

    Flop comes 235 rainbow. The weak player in the BB donks $12. I raised to $30. My first mistake is I would have preferred a $40 sizing, but not the end of the world. The good player to my left calls, and the BB folds and the other player folds. Turn is a 3. I thought about checking, but didn’t want to give up control of the hand and also wanted to charge any Aces from drawing, as well as underpairs. So I bet $40 here. I prefer like a $55 bet here, so that’s another mistake I believe. He calls again. At this point, I got in my head that he very well may be smooth calling me down with a monster, like a A4, 55, 33, 22, A3.

    So river is actually not even a bad card for me, it’s a 2. That makes 22 less likely. But it also gives A2 a full house. Anyway, I think for a moment and decided on checking. I prefer betting to get value from underpairs 66-jj, as those hands will just check back the river most of the time. Checking’s not the worst, as I can evaluate his action, and maybe pick off an Ace high bluff. I think the real reason I checked was out of fear that it felt like he was smooth calling me with a monster, and I didn’t want to just hand him the rest of my chips. Anyway, he doesn’t think long and fires a $100 bet, which represents the rest of my stack which is $80. At this point, I’m getting 3.5:1, as the pot is $260 after his effective $80 bet. At this point, all those pocket pairs I thought might be in his range didn’t seem likely at all anymore, as they’re almost always going to check back the river with showdown value. When he bet $100 here, it was affirmation of what I was already fearing, that’s exactly what he would have done with the monster it felt like he was slow playing. So doing a little combinatoric work, he has 5 combos of 55, 22, and 33, and 4 combos of A4 suited, plus 2 each of A3 or A2 suited. Giving him around 13 combos of value. The bluffs I thought he might hand would be hand like AQ or AK that didn’t decided to re-raise pre flop, or AJs or A10s. That’s like 30 combos, but what I was trying to think about was, would he play these hands this way? For whatever reason, I looked him up and down and decided he had a monster, even though getting the pot odds I was being laid, even if he’s only doing with with 25% of his Ace high hands, I needed to be calling. It seems reasonable to think that AQ would float twice with two over-cards and a gutshot, and then bomb the river when he missed. For whatever reason, in the moment I just didn’t believe it, in spite of the math. And plus, I’m at the top of my range with KK, I don’t think I should ever be folding here for those odds. 1:1.5 odds or something, sure good fold, but not here.

    I asked him if he’d show if I fold, and he was stoic. This helped solidify my decision. I let it go, and he turned over 54suited, for top pair with a busted open ender. He told me he turned his hand into a bluff because he thought that was his only way to win. This was a big pot for me, as it would have put me up $140, instead I was down $120. It really got in my head, and thought about it a lot as I was driving home from Vegas. Felt it was a bit of an inflection point, kind of solidfying why I just play poker recreationally and not the real deal like Brad. I trust my reads maybe to my peril, but I forsook the math and game theory and left a lot of money on the table. Everyone at the table said to not beat myself up over it, they’ve all been there before. I wish I could take their advice.

    I guess what I want to take away from this hand, is trying to find a mindset shift where I basically say to myself ‘so be it’ more often, or something to that extent. Maybe that can be my new poker motto. If you have it, so be it, my hand is just too good to fold, kind of a thing. Bluffs don’t seem very likely, but the value side is really slim too, so I have to call. I just really hate folding due to fear. Any thoughts or feedback appreciated.

    • This topic was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by Jameson.
    • This topic was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by Jameson.
    • This topic was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by Jameson.
    • This topic was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by Jameson.
    #1715
    Chuck M
    Participant

    Hey Jameson
    Interesting post there. I sometimes make big folds even tho i feel it should be a call. I think sometimes it’s harder to push the actual chips in the middle than making the theorial decision.
    For me, the main reason I would think of is super simple. I just don’t have a bankroll. My ´bankroll’ so to speak, consists of a buy-in or two. Some could say I shouldn’t be playing at all, but… on the other hand, I have a full-time job, so I can afford to set appart a little amount of money or poker. I guess I should wait a few months so I could build a small poker roll.
    I don’t know, I kind of wanna build it from my poker wins (but i’m about breaking even for now).

    Anyway, to recap, I think that the day I’ll feel comfortable reloadig after a cooler, maybe I’ll feel more able to make decisions closer to what I think would be best. I don’t know your bankroll situation, but I kinda realized that was a little ´problem’ I had.

    I don’t think your fold was terrible. I like your thougt process, evaluating his range, it’s true that he can be bluffing there, but I think it’s (almost) always hard to stackoff with only a one pair hand. And the board hits more his range than yours. Either way, was not an easy spot imho.

    #1717
    Jameson
    Participant

    Thanks for the feedback Chuck. I definitely think my bankroll situation could have weighed in on my decision. At the point of this hand I was already down $500 on my trip and feared going down $600, as that’s just a big hit to my bankroll.

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