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Pretty weird i phandlayed against an aggressive and fishy opponent. Mostly worried about the play on the turn. As played I think the flop and river are pretty standard.
On the flop I think I have to call. He can have more 4s in his range than me but also a ton of random air trying to represent a 4. I beat all of his bluffs and have 6 outs if he’s (incorrectly) value betting a hand like 77.
The turn play is the interesting point in the hand i think. I guess he could have some 8s in his range but usually when a fishy type player is bluffing and then makes a pair on the turn their bet sizing is smaller or they’ll check. His bet size is so large here i can’t really think of any value hands he’d play this way. Against a better player (not that they’d play a hand this way) i’d be more worried about a hand like A4 or 67s and concerned that they’re sizing the turn big so they can get their stack in on the river. I don’t expect this player to be thinking about these variables and would be more concerned about betting small to ensure a call if he had made a hand. I’m still beating all of his bluffs and can likely make the best hand with an Ace or King.
That being said, I can have SO many better hands in this spot. I can easily have all of the over pairs and 8s full that i can choose to call with instead. I think calling with AK in the long run is probably calling too much, but I took a more exploitative line considering my opponents line makes little sense.
The river is pretty standard i think once i river the top pair top kicker i obviously have to call it off.
Let me know what you guys think? Would you just bail on the flop? On the turn?
I would likely have called the flop as you did. The only thing that might give me pause is that he’s donk-leading the flop out of flow. But against this type of player that probably doesn’t mean much.
I think I would have folded the turn, but your thought process behind the call seems reasonable. So much of this game comes down to range analysis. Your turn call may not be so much exploitative as just putting your opponent on a wide range.
The river call is definitely standard once you paired your ace.
I agree with Dave. If you have flagged the V as crazy aggressive then I can see the logic of your call.
Hypothetically, what do you do if a J comes on the river and V shoves? If he’s aggro and likely to do this on all rivers, but you only call with an A or K on the river then you are possibly opening yourself up to exploit by aggressive players. But if you call down with AK too much you’re value-town. Tricky.
I would have called the flop and prolly folded the turn. I don’t go too crazy with AK. The river is pretty interesting though. I would maybe crying call the river expecting him to have a 4 a lot of the time. But if you had a read that he was playing crazy the whole had plays a lot different for you.
im probably folding the turn but when you get to the river you have a snap call as you have the best 1 pair hand you can have!
Thanks for replies guys. I think from GTO perspective turn should be a fold as many of you have noted. I’d seen this guy playing for several hours and make some big hands. He never played anything strong this way and honestly never bet more than 50-60% pot with a value hand. I think I’d fold to a normal sized bet but the bet was just so large it screamed weakness to me. I guess that’s why we pay attention to our opponents even when we aren’t in the hand!
Thanks again for the feedback.
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