Does villain ALWAYS have it when they shove 2.5x pot on the river

[DomT]

http://mysmp.me/h_mo5

Sick river shove . . . I beat 68% of possible hands by the river. . but does villain always have it? This is my first post, and I’m wondering if this forum is mainly for live cash, not online (I’m in the UK). So the game is 2NL . . also, I struggled with ShareMyPair to set up for 2NL so set it up as 200NL.

thanks in advance for your view.

Dom T

[John S]

Big shoves usually do indicate that someone has it. Not many players incorporate the overbet bluff into their game.

On this particular board, there are a lot of hands that will just chop here (any K). I’d probably bomb a K or a 9 here. Jacks probably aren’t calling a huge bet, and you really shouldn’t get value from less than that. If I have a king I probably jam here to try and get a nitty player off of a chop, or if I have a 9 I want to make it look like I’m trying to scare someone off a chop.

You can’t really look at situations like this and expect them to represent most hands that you play. Imagine a board that is 9TJQ2. Any K (or 8) is a straight. Bombing the pot with a K might make an opponent think you have AK, and they might fold a hand that would chop. So doing the same with AK makes it look like you’re trying to push someone off a chop and you can get called for max value.

I don’t play online microstakes, but these bombs on the river are almost always value against most of the people you’ll play against on a real table.

[DomT]

Not sure what your conclusion is then . . fold or call? But given you’d probably bomb a K or a 9 here, and so would villain, then I think you are saying it’s a fold? For example, villain could have KQ (8 combos), KJ (4 combos), KT (8 combos) . .so I’m chopping on 20 combos. But I lose to A9-89 (20 combos). So half the time I chop and half the time I lose. So 50% of the time my EV is +47 (half of the pot before his bet) and 50% of the time my EV is -248 (when I call and lose). So that’s a fold?

If I include possible missed flush draws and AJ and QT which get to the river somehow and then go for the river jam bluff (granted, you say this is unlikely), then there are 30 combos which I beat . . so now it’s 43% win (+343), 29% chop (+47) and 29% lose (-248) . . which works out as an EV of +90 (ie a call).

Regarding your 2nd scenario . . I don’t think villain can represent AK given he didn’t 3bet pre. I however have an uncapped range so I can jam AK (or not!)

• This reply was modified 7 years ago by DomT.
• This reply was modified 7 years ago by DomT.

[John S]

I just think you’re calling here to chop or lose so much that it’s probably a fold. Sure, there are some players that are turning their hands into a bluff, but the vast majority of players aren’t even betting a J here. It’s a K or a 9 almost exclusively unless you’re playing against and maniac or a very skilled player. Granted, I don’t play online, so maybe a bluff here is more common, but live stakes I think this is a pretty easy fold given the price.

You’re calling 248 to win 48 for the chop. That means you need to chop something like 83% of the time (5 out of 6 times) to break even (assuming this is never a bluff). There are two kings left in the deck and one nine. If he has an equal amount of kings and nines in his range pre-flop, you’re chopping 2/3 of the time and losing 1/3 of the time.

I just think that against and unknown or against a player that hasn’t shown the tendency to bluff a lot this is a fold.

[DomT]

That’s a very interesting way of putting it . . I have to chop 5 out of 6 times to break even. And if he has as many Ks as 9s in his range, given there are two Ks and one 9 left in the deck then I’m chopping 2/3rds and losing 1/3rd . . that’s pretty much it, isn’t it. Bluffs excluded. Thanks John . . you’ve helped me to look at it in a new way which I’ll try to use in the future.

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