Dream Turn + Nightmare River

[Kevin Rex]

Hey guys, pretty interesting hand I played here at live 5/10 9-handed. Curious about the river play and if you guys think bet/folding is a better option than check/calling here. I don’t think we can check fold. What do you guys think? I also think I could have used an even bigger sizing on the turn like 1.3-1.5x pot for reasons i talked about below.

Here is some of my analysis:

Villain’s range can be pretty wide on the flop when he overcalls a raise preflop on the button. I gave him credit for pretty much any reasonable hand that could connect with this flop. He can have all the sets, some overpairs, two pairs hands, flush draws, pair plus straight draws, etc.

Betting the flop: I opened from UTG+2 so 89 suited is at the bottom of my range. I flop a gutshot and a flush draw with just 9 high. Definitely a strong semi bluffing hand so I’m going to be putting in a bet here to balance out the times I’m betting with TT-KK. I’d probably check with AA as well as 77-99 to protect my checking range as I’m out of position to two players and I’d probably check the nut flush draw. I need to be able to make a flush on later streets if I check the flop and it’s best to do this with ace high as I may actually have the best hand and could win if it’s checked around. I’m really tightening up both my value and bluff betting ranges as I’m OOP in a 4 way pot and this flop favors players in position. I’d bet with 66 but I would not be opening 55 or 33 from this position so my range is mostly capped to strong draws and overpairs.

Villain range on the flop: As said before, this flop hit his range reasonably hard, but I don’t think we have to give him credit for a nutted hand when he overcalls the flop to close the action. I’ve seen him slowplay some big hands in the past so it’s definitely reasonable he could have all the sets, but a big percentage of his range is pair plus straight draws, flush draws, etc.

Betting the turn: The turn comes the magical, beautifulest, more prettyful 7 of spades, giving me the nuts with a redraw. Obviously I’m going to be betting this card, but it’s a GREAT spot for me to use a really really big sizing for a few reasons: 1) This card connects with lots of villains range. If villain had any hand like 34s, 45s, 64s he just made a worse straight. If he had 67s for a pair + gutshot he has two pair, if he had 77 or 88 he improved to top set or an up and down straight draw. Even 99 picked up a gutshot to the nuts. He’s also never folding a set as he has the redraw to the fullhouse. There’s almost no part of his range that I’d expect him to fold here. 2) We are very deep and using an overbet on the turn helps me get money in on the river. If I go 1.3x pot on the turn and then 1.3x pot on good rivers like J of hearts I could get all the money in with a REALLY polarized range. I think my hand would look a lot like a busted flush draw and, considering i have literally zero hands with a 4 in them I could expect to get called by lower straights and even some stubborn sets. I’m glad I used a large size but if there was ever a spot to overbet, it’s this exact situation.

Villain range after calling the turn: I still think villain’s range can be pretty uncapped here. Even though he doesn’t raise the turn he can still have all the 2 pairs and sets because there are 4 cards to a straight out there. I give villain credit for being a pretty good player but I think it’s actually pretty reasonable to raise the turn with a set because a thinking player would know I have very few 4s in my range. ANYWAYS, calling the turn may eliminate a few combos of hands like 54 or 64 that make a straight but again, he’s definitely capable of slow playing.

On the river: If the turn was the best card ever then the river is the worst. Yes, the board pairs, but this is the worst variety of pairing card. Remember we gave villain a lot of hands like 56, 67, and sets. This means all of his two pair hands are now boated up whereas a 2nd 3 on the river would mean only his sets boated up. It also makes it a little bit harder for villain to get the money in with a hand a 4 in his hand.

I think we have two options. 1) Bet 35-45% of the pot, hoping to get a call from a 4, with the intention of folding to any reasonably sized raise. Live players obviously tend to under bluff-raise the river but on this board it’s unlikely they could even identify a good hand to bluff raise with so I think a raise would pretty much only be a full house. 2) Check/call hoping that a 4 or 6 will mistakenly value bet thinking i have a busted flush draw or overpair that might make a hero call. Honestly I think good players will be value betting a 4 when it’s checked to them here as I can’t have a fullhouse when i check the river. The very best players will go for thin thin value with a 6 knowing that it’s unlikely I have a 4.

As played, he bets about 3/5th pot and with the price we are getting I call it off and he shows up with 55. Well played? Poorly played? Do we like a bet/fold line better?

[Paul Hewson]

I really like your analysis of your hand, very well considered.

I would prefer a bet fold here. First because there are several hands in Vs range that you beat and would call a river bet, but would check behind if given the option. Second, by leading out you set the price you are prepared to pay (folding to a raise), so you save yourself the cost of higher check call.

[Kevin Rex]

I like your idea of setting your price on the river bet by bet/folding, Paul. I think if I had bet 40% I’d have saved myself 150-200 bucks by folding to the raise. That being said, that difference might be made up for by the fact that he could value bet worse straights at 60% pot. In that case, I’d be losing 150-200 bucks by not betting more on the river and getting called by a worse hand. The question is if he’d always bet 60% pot on the river with a 4 or if he’d bet smaller. Maybe, maybe not.

The more I think about this hand I think a line I’d prefer to take even more than this would be a turn check/raise. 1) From a GTO angle, I’m going to be checking like 99% of my range on this turn card, it just so heavily favors my opponent. If I don’t keep a few very strong hands back for check/raises then my checking range is very weak and a thinking player could bluff me relentlessly in position with two streets to go. I’d probably have to fold most if not all of my overpairs here or on the river. So, maybe hands like 89hh and 89cc are bets, while 89ss and especially 89dd are checks with the intention to check raise. To balance that out hands like 9Tdd and 9Tss would be good hands to bluff with as they have no showdown value, a flush draw, picked up a gutshot, and have a blocker to the nut straight. 2) We are also so deep at 300+ BB that a check raise can make it easier to get the money in. 3) If we do check/raise on the turn, get called, and the board pairs, we actually are more likely to have the best hand than if we just bet the turn and get called. This is because a non-zero % of the time Villain will be betting a hand like 56 or 67 for value/protection on the turn and then folding to a sizeable raise. We’d be contorting his range more towards hands with a 4 in them which are drawing dead and away from 2 pair hands and set that can fill up. He’d also have to fold some high equity semi-bluffs depending on the price like A5 of spades or something. Obviously folding out his equity is not the desired goal, we’d be check raising for pure value, but if we can win his bet AND deny his equity that’s preferable to just winning a bet on the turn when we know he’s never folding and facing lots of bad river cards.

[Tony]

You took the words right out of my keyboard, Kevin. I think the turn is a prime spot for a c/r. This board hits V’s range pretty hard. After he calls the flop, I am even more inclined to believe that all the sets and 2pair hands are there as well as a few draws. For all of the reasons you state above, I think this is a c/r on the turn.

For the river, I would have preferred a bet/fold over a check/call for sure, also for reasons you both stated above.

So, in summary, I have contributed nothing to this thread other than, “I agree.”

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