Early Stage MTT Hand Against Calling Station

[Tyler]

Hi guys, so before I post the full hand, I would like some feedback on the theoretical side of a check or bet decision with these conditions. I broke this hand down and made some reasonable assumptions, but even after seeing all of the numbers in Flopzilla I am not sure if check or bet was the correct move. Here it is:

Blinds 30-60
Hero stack on turn: 3,530
Villain stack: 2,475
Pot 1,140

Hero has TsTd and is in position.
The board is 4s Js 2d 6d

Villain checks to hero
Based on play up until this point, we assume this is villain’s range: 40% TPGK, 20% Flush Draw, 20% Gut Shot (some of these are combo draws like 5s6s), 20% weak hands that will FOLD.

Flopzilla says our hand is currently ahead 50% of the time, and the equity is 50/50 vs V’s range.

We assume V will call with everything but the weak hands (80% as the player seems like a station).

Is it proper to check or bet and how much? Is this a case where the EV is very close between the 2 decisions, or am I missing something? Please try to answer before moving to the HH if possible.

—-

Now for the full hand history:
$5.50 MTT
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 2: x(6090).
Seat 3: UTG (3000). (VPIP 61 / PFR 11 / 3Bet 8 / Agr% 18) small sample
Seat 4: x(2941).
Seat 5: x(6897).
Seat 6: Hero (4055).
Seat 7: x(3120).
Seat 8: x(2910).
Seat 9: x(3259).
Blinds 30-60

Hero: [10s 10d]

UTG calls (60)
2 folds
Hero raises (240)
everyone else folds
UTG calls (180)

*** FLOP ***: [4s Js 2d] (570)
UTG checks
Hero bets (285)
UTG calls (285)

*** TURN ***: [4s Js 2d] [6d] (1,140)
UTG checks
Hero bets (570)
UTG calls (570)

*** RIVER ***: [4s Js 2d 6d] [9c] (2,280)
Check Check, UTG mucks

[Author]

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