Flopped Top Two – should I fold this turn/river?

[Dave Thompson]

1/3 NLH in local card room
LowJack: Hero (stack ~$450)
Button: Villain (big stack at the table – haven’t been at this table long so I don’t have a good sense of how he plays)

Preflop: Action folds to me and I open to $10 with KsTs. CO, BTN and BB all call. Pot is $41.

Flop: KdTc2d

BB checks and I lead out for $35. CO folds, BTN calls and BB folds. Pot is $111.

Turn: Qh

I lead out for $65 and BTN raises to $160. I tank for maybe 20 or 30 seconds and call. Pot is $431.

River: 8s

I check and BTN goes all in. He has me well covered, so it’s my remaining ~$250 to call.

I tank for a long while.

My thought process: Plausible value hands that beat me include KQ (6 combos), TT (1 combo), 22 (6 combos). I discount KK and QQ due to no 3-bet pre-flop. None of the straights (AJ or J9) seem likely either. So that’s 13 plausible combos that beat me. Plausible value hands I beat include QT (6 combos) and maybe AK (8 combos). Plausible bluffs I beat include QJ (12 combos) and JT (8 combos). Some of the combos that beat me should be discounted since I don’t know how likely this guy is to bluff nor how likely he is to play off-suit hands. So if I cut the number of combos I beat in half from 34 down to 17, that’s still more combos than I figured would beat me. So I call.

Showdown: Villain shows KQo to win the pot.

I’m honestly not sure if my reasoning on this was sound. What do y’all think? Should I have found a fold on the river? Maybe even the turn? Or were my calls on turn/river reasonable?

I’m very interested to hear what people think.

Cheers,
Dave

[David]

Hi Dave,

I’m a $1/3 player too, and trying to learn just like you. I put your hand into PokerCruncher, to see what I came up with…

First, there are 3 combos of 22 since one is on board.

Second, I would think that the villain could have all AJ combos in his BTN calling range. Why not peel with a gutter to the broadway? If either of his cards contained a diamond, then he’s continuing 100% of the time. If he had AdJd then he’s continuing 1000% of the time, and maybe even raising on the flop. Also, I’m not sure I would completely discount the possibility of him having J9 in his range. J9o might be a little loose, but he was the big stack, and you didn’t have a great feel for him at the start of this hand. Once again, if he held Jd9x, Jx9d, or Jd9d, then he’s coming along.

There’s probably somewhere between 36-42 combos that have you beat. You’re right, you beat value hands like Q10 and AK. I’m not sure the villain would limp AK preflop. Assuming this was a strategy, I don’t think he would take the line that he did.

With that being said, you beat a lot of his bluffs, including: all missed flush draws, and all missed one pair hands with straight and/or flush draws that missed.

I’m plugging the villain’s range into this cruncher and it’s spitting out over 60% equity in your favor. A call is should be ok here, right? I’m very new to studying hands, let alone using PokerCruncher, so I may be doing this all wrong.

[mark]

Why do you rule out the AJ or J9 for a gunshot straight? The individual would have position on you and may call the flop just in case you’re c betting with nothing. AJ suited would have a gut shot, one over and probably a back door flush. Thought?

[Old Dog]

Dave,

I believe that in the smallest game in the room, a lot of the regs go for a strategy of beating top-top. That is, if they bet the end, especially if they bet big on the end, they have top-top or an overpair beaten. Bluffs on the end at the lowest stakes are much more rare than in bigger games.

My thoughts in this hand after villian’s river bet would include “Which value hands (that beat top-top) can I beat and which can I not?”. I like your discounting of KK and QQ, but I tend to discount the straights a little less. I feel that the regs play these hands in position (chasing implied odds) more than I would specifically to end up with a hand that crushes top-top. The turn raise probably rules out 10-x hands and pairs lower than kings. Your call here rules out your draws and says that you have a king at least.

Villian’s bet on the river, when he could have checked top pair and seen a showdown for free, tells me that he can beat many kings, and I would expect to see two pair (KQ or K-10) or straights almost every time. I would heavily discount his bluffs because of the turn raise and the reg-strategy of beating top-top. You already called the turn raise, he believes you’ll call the river bet with top pair.

Again, this is my observation for the smallest games and for regs that are playing against people they don’t know. If you and he had a lot of history/knew each other’s games or were playing 2/5 or 5/10, the bluffs become more likely. But against unknowns in 1/2 or 1/3, they play less GTO and a much more exploitative strategy. It works against unknown players for me, too. Against the regs, I minimize losses by knowing their strategy and adjusting accordingly.

My two cents’ worth.

[Dave Thompson]

Thanks for the great input guys.

I think you’re all right that I was too quick to discount the straights.

David – thanks for the correction on my combinatorics re 22. I agree with your assessment that the math is in my favor to call on the river. A fold would have been exploitative rather than GTO. But a fold might still have been warranted based on my read of the opponent.

Old Dog – the more I think about it, the more I come around to your view that he’s just not very likely to be bluffing or over-valuing top pair in that spot. If that’s the case, then I need to find a fold on the river, even though I think GTO says it’s a call.

Thanks again!

Cheers,
Dave

[machman]

why did you rule out AJ or J9 ? he is big stack at the table so 35$ bet for a gut shot in position will not be a bad play right..

[Author]

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