Hand Analysis – Two Pair Facing a River Shove

[BZ]

1/3 NL

Me: $~690
Villian: ~$475

One limper to me – I raise KQo UTG+2 to $15, four callers (UTG, me in UTG+2, villain in MP, HJ) see the flop.

8 K 3 rainbow

Checks to villian in MP, he bets $15, HJ calls, UTG folds, I call. Three see the turn, Q completing the rainbow.

8 K 3 Q rainbow

I lead for $25, villain in MP raises to $80, HJ gets out of the way, I call. Heads up to river, an 8.

8 K 3 Q 8

I check, villian shoves remaining ~$350. I cover him.

I tank fold, he doesn’t show. I put him on pocket 3s mainly, possibly KQ, or maybe K8/Q3 (which called a raise pre – possible in the type of game I’m playing). I figure pocket As, Ks, Qs should be 3 betting preflop, AK, AQ, A8 wouldn’t normally raise turn, maybe he has KQ same as me, but we and the board block that…

I’m decently new, and so I’m having a couple of thoughts of how I could’ve played that better:
– I think I should’ve c-bet the flop?
– Should I have folded to the turn raise?
– Are there any other obvious leaks I’m missing?

• This topic was modified 5 years, 5 months ago by BZ.

[Nigel]

i feel like thats a good fold, cause thats how i would play if i flop bottom set. re raise to get some value out of kings and queens while chasing out anyone with some weird draw.

Yes cbetting when you flop top pair is mostly always a good idea.

or he could just be dicking around with ace high, you never knowww 😀 but yeah good fold, sounds like you were beat.

• This reply was modified 5 years, 5 months ago by Nigel.

[Raging Reporter]

Tough spot man. To break the hand down:

I would definitely cbet this dry of a flop. Bet small, since the board is very dry and it’s hard to find callers and you don’t have to be afraid of draws most of the time. Furthermore, you’ve got some Ks in your range.

You turn top two. Not sure about the lead, could be good, but I don’t know. Definitely don’t fold to his raise, you have top two. You could even make a case for jamming.

In the river jam you’re being put in a sick spot. He doesnt have a lot of bluffs, since there are no draws. 33 is ofcourse possible, but it’s tough to put someone on one single hand. K8 seems less likely, but you probably know the guy.

I think a fold is fine, since I don’t see what he is doing this with apart from a weird A high hand or something..

[BZ]

Thanks for your thoughts! After pondering it a bit more I really could only see him having 33 or KQ. Appreciate the analysis!

[DeeKay]

without a feel for the player or game, he could have A-K and think that was good. Under the Brad Owen philosophy… what are you beating here. You are beating any King (other than K-8). I’m not sure what he is representing.
But, although I don’t know if anything would have changed, I would have played the hand differently. Pot has $75 in it and guy leads out for $15. With 5 in the pot, I would have like to raise that to $50. 3 callers so the pot is about $120.
The turn you lead out for $25. Maybe the villain reads this as really weak and raises based on that weak bet ($50-$70 would have been more appropriate). Pot is now $280… he’s going to shove if he thinks he has the best hand. Maybe its Considering he re-raises on the turn, could still be A-K. At that point he has no reason to believe that you could possibly have a better hand. If he thinks he’s best, he should shove.
Regardless, its a tough call unless you have a good read on the player and his style.

[Author]

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