How bad was this fold?

[DitzyBlonde]

2/5 100 (Colorado 100 max bet)

Hero KsQs on BTN
Hj raise to 20
Hero call
BB call
Flop As9s8c
Hj 40
Hero and BB call ($182)
Turn Kc
HJ Allin 90
Hero debate and fold. Feeling pretty sure Hj has AK or a set and that BB is going to raise max ($190) if I call. BB has about $700 behind.

BB call
Damn river 6s
Hj shows 99
BB muck.

[Hans Griese]

Based off your title I think you know -_- . I think a half-pot bet there should never be getting you out (3-1 odds, nut draw). Curious why you think the BB will be raising behind you – live tell, or playing patterns? I think a set is clearly the HJs hand, but he’s all in so no more action there. If the BB does raise, you’re still getting decentish odds (4.6-1) to call and see the river – a check/fold if you don’t improve, and raise the max if you do. But I’m far from a great player, so grains of salt with my opinion.

[John S]

I’m never folding here in this structure. Direct odds are 3:1, so you’re not quite getting the right price to call for your flush, but with the guy behind probably adding money to the pot you are getting a good price to call. If you didn’t have the nut flush draw that would be different, but since you do yo have to call.

Why did you think BB was going to raise? He hasn’t shown any aggression in the hand, so unless he’s got some weird 2 pair I don’t see what he’s raising with.

That structure must be tough to play. I live in AZ, but at least our spread limit for 3/5 is a $500 max bet. You probably need to read up on some limit theory, since I imagine a lot of turns and rivers play more like a limit game.

[DitzyBlonde]

I spent some time trying to figure out the math and it looks like as long as the BB was calling, and especially if he was raising actually, I should call.
Does this seem accurate?:

pot after HJ allin on turn = $272 ($182 + $90)

breakeven % (if BB folds): $90/($90+$272)$362 = 25%
“ if BB calls: $90/$452 = 19.9%
“ if BB max raise: $100/($100+$552)$652 = 15%

I looked at the odds calculator on cardplayer and see I was 19.05% if the BB had two pair, and less than 15% if he had something like Js10s. If the BB wasn’t calling I actually didn’t quite have odds though.

[DitzyBlonde]

Yeah, the 100 max is kind of a drag. I sure miss Vegas.

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