How Much to Raise

[DeeKay]

Had an interesting hand situation. It was all good stuff, but trying to think about the right sizing. I feel ok about my decision but was wondering if there are other opinions on how to play this.

2-5 Game. I have about $1k in chips. I’m stuck $1K as I have been running super cold. Getting rivered, counterfeited, set over set… just unfortunate. I
I’m in early position and I pick up JJ. I raise to $20 to open it up. I get one caller and then the big stack (whose essentially been in god-mode for the past 4 hours) raises to $80. Quiet guy on my right calls. I haven’t really seen the big stack raise light as she’s shown to be a pretty solid player. There was a thought to 4-bet to lay on a squeeze, but I believe I am now set mining, so just put in the call. Other player folds so we go to the flop with $260 in the pot.
Flop is Jh-6s-4s. Given there are two spades, and likely a couple of strong hands I’m playing against, I decide to lead out $65 to juice the pot. Big stack raises to $180. Quiet guy calls.
Now here’s the question at hand… how do I maximize value? Do I call and go for the hammer play, or do I raise close to a min to set up the turn jam? Or do I just rip it in given its a nice pot. With the raise and call, pot is $685 before I have to act. Big stack has me easily covered, and quiet guy looks to have an equal size stack as me.
…
…
…
I think that a raise to $600 is the right size, but given that would leave me only $300 behind, doesn’t seem to make much sense. My fear is that if I jam it for about $700 more, I could lose value, although it would still be a nice pot (remember I’m running very cold). I actually misread the amount of chips the quiet guy has as I think he only has $500 behind… and given his call of $180, I think there’s a great chance he’ll call, so I jam it in.
Big Stack goes into the tank. After a few painful minutes, she folds. Quiet guy snaps.
Turn is Ace clubs, River 3 clubs. I scoop the pot. Of course, the Big Stack in god-mode had pocket aces. Almost any other bet/raise, she would have called and would have hit the turn. Clearly the scenario ran out in the best possible way for me, but very curious how others would look to play this hand.

[Jason]

Pretty sure you play is fine , most ways to play this hand which you described would have been ok too , I’m really shocked at you 65$ lead into 260$ truly believe this is a huge mistake ( Althought there are 2 spades you get 0% golds on that bet size )
I know your scared to have it check thru but if you lead out here you allow your (god mode opponent to easily fold (7s-10s ) and any (ace Broadway ) of no spades .. essentially 0% change they Cbet bluff
Nice hand tho

[Robert]

So you say leading into a pot of $260 with a $65 bet, is a mistake. So please explain why this is a mistake and what yourself would have done?

[DeeKay]

It didn’t make much sense as no one would be folding to such a light bet. But after I thought about it, I think I confused two hands and I think I checked the flop to the raiser. That would have made more sense. Doesn’t make any sense that I would lead out $65 into an almost $600 pot.

[Patrick Brennan]

Obviously the hand played well because you got the AA to fold but I don’t think the line is optimal as we want the AA in the hand when we’re so far ahead.

I would prefer to check to the raiser when smashing a flop like this but it is definitely a wet board so we don’t necessarily want to give 2 opponents an opportunity to draw for free. I think heads up this is a for sure check- raise situation but 3 handed I think you’re forced to bet. I prefer a slightly larger bet size than $65 here… I think I would lead out for slightly less than half pot say around $115. I think AA here will still raise fairly often to $275 or more leaving you with clear choices should the other opponent fold or shove.

If he shoves you can just call and then rip it in on any non spade turn card. If he folds then you can try for another raise or call and lead out on all safe turn cards.

[Author]

Posts