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Hey guys!
One of the casinos that i frequent has a $300 high hand promotion/prize every hour. Any aces full qualifies for the high hand. Unless someone on another Hold ’em table hits a higher hand, you’d be getting paid at the end of the hour.
One of the things that happen frequently is someone would offer to buy the prize before it “matures” for less money.Example: you hit aces full of eights at 9:20 –> qualifies for $300 at 10:00
someone would offer $200 now, in return, they’ll get the $300 IF it holds for 40 minutes.
So basically you cash in for less on the prize that might not hold.I personally have accepted offers like that and have declined. Most of the time it all depends on how high my hand is, how much time left on the clock, and how many tables are running.
However, to make an informed decision, I’ve done some work on it and came up with this basic formula if you’re receiving the offer:
Better to Accept the bid if (PV + (Premium * FV)) > FV
Better to Decline the bid if (PV + (Premium * FV)) < FVWhere PV: present value (the offer)
Premium: calculated risk
FV: future value. Prize money at maturity time $300Premium (the risk) is: Q * T * P * H/H
1. Q: quality hands: The sum of probabilities for combinations of 5 cards that makes the high hand.
Probabilities are:
For Aces full; The probability is 0.00016964
For quads; The probability is 0.000240
For a straight flush; The probability is 0.0000138517
For a Royal flush; The probability is 0.00000153908
Sum is: 0.000425030782. T: # of tables running.
3. P: # of players on each table.
4. H/H: hand/ hour/ table multiplied by what’s left in the hour. Ex. Assume that 26 hands get played per hour on each table. There is 40 minutes left on the clock to collect: 26 * (40/60minutes)= 17.33 hand.Example using the formula:
>You hit Aces full of 3s at 9:18pm it’s a high hand that grants you $300 at the end of the hour if it holds.
>> at 9:20 Someone offers you $200 cash to buy the prize.There 5 tables running, each table is 9-handed, and the average hands played per hour is 26.
Find premium: Q * T * P * H/H
%0.042503078 * 5 * 9 * (26*(40/60))
Premium = 0.3314596455Plug the premium in main formula:
(PV + (Premium * FV)) > FV
(200 + (0.3314596455 * 300)) > 300
(200 + 99.44)<300In this specific example it’s %50-%50 .. The deal is absolutely fair for both parties. You can see that any change in T, P, or H/H can change the decision.
There’re many problems with the formula. We have to assume an average number of hands per hour. We have to make the number of players constant. Also Q, if the high hand is quads, we can calculate the sum of probabilities without fullhouses of Aces full. However, when the high hand is Aces full of 9s for example, the sum of probabilities should be Q-(probability of aces full less than aces full of 9s). this specific piece of data is hard to find period, but especially on the spot.
I would like you to help me better the formula/logical analysis for when to take/make an offer & for how much and when to decline. Please share your thoughts with me. Let me know what you think.
Cheers
You have clearly thought this out enough to be the expert on the topic. WOW! I haven’t seen a high-hand sold in this fashion, but I am a Gimme-the-money kind of guy… If I have AAA55, I would probably sell, if I have JJJJA, I probably hold. Like you said, it’s a feel kind of a thing. Your math is scary good though!
So – while playing at Hollywood on Friday night, I had a guy at my table hit a high hand with QQQQA with 30 minutes to go. Prize was $500. I offered him $300 to buy it off of him, he said ‘$400’.. I said ‘no thanks’. About :15 later, I told him I would buy 50% of his hand for $150 (same valuation as my original offer, but left him more upside).. He accepted and I flipped him over $150 in cash. With about 8 minutes left, I hear those terrible words ‘High Hand on 8!’… Heart sinks. But there seems to be some conversation at Table 8 about the hand itself. There is hope!
I had a buddy playing at that table, and he comes over and tells me that the guy had the EXACT same hand. Pocket Queens that made Quads, with an ace on the board. The hand held through the end, so the floor decided that they would SPLIT the $500 prize b/w the two. So I got 1/2 of the 1/2 prize, $125. So lost $25 on the proposition – but MUCH better than losing the whole $150, or *gasp* if I had purchased it outright at the beginning for $300 and then lost. This was the first time I had bought a high hand from someone – and I did it because of your post! Really made the game more fun!
Also that night, with 11 tables going in the poker room, I saw 99977 hold up for an entire 30-minute high hand period for a $500 win. Unreal!
Dude I should’ve added a disclaimer in the post. Hahaha.
That’s tough though, losing a bit there. They’re definitely more money to make in buying the high hand than in selling it
Your chances of getting the high hand is 1/# of players in the room. So you have 1 selling scenario over the number of players over the number of hours.I once lost $218 with 26 seconds left on the clock. I bought quads 4s J kicker with 23 minutes left 37 players in the room. But over all, I am way ahead in the buying promotions business.
For making an offer to buy, you should solve for PV in the equation .. Then, make an offer that’s less than that number, like way less, to allow yourself to ‘meet in the middle’ in the negotiation. The the equation tells you the FAIR price for the high hand based on the risk you’re taking.
I’m now more determined to develop the table for each hand buy/sell scenarios.
Y’all are crazy lol jk but this is cool I would sell, I hardly ever get them and when someone at my table does it never holds up lol
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