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So I’m playing 1/2 in a four – way pot that was opened to $9. I’ve got 9 10 of spades and defend getting a good price. Flop comes out 7-8-9 one spade and two clubs. Checks to the button who continues for $20. Two calls in front and I complete. Turn is a 3 of diamonds. Check and button jams for $72 more. Folds to me. I’m hating life right now. I tell him he’s got two clubs with the 10 of clubs. He gives me every sign that he’s weak. That he’ll show if I fold, etc. I fold to him, and we rabbit for a binked jack of hearts that would have given me the hand. He shows 5-6 of clubs for the dumb end. I have gotten more into figuring out when a call is profitable or not and forget results oriented. I really have no clue here if calling his jam is profitable. Any advise here?
could have been a call on flop, i guess, but not on the turn. You got 8 outs for the straight, from that, you can substract 2 which would be giving villain a flush (just to be safe, we can assume he’s got a flush draw, or a pair+flushdraw, maybe a pair + sd + fd. A ten could be good sometimes, like when he flopped 2 pairs. But it’s obviously no good against a set or the bottom end straight (or against JJ). So we can’t really count that in…
So, 6 outs on the turn, is 12% chance to hit.
The pot is 188 including his $72 jam, you got 2.6:1 on a call. You’d need 28% equity to breakeven on that call. So with 12%, it’s a losing call, you better fold in that spot. Now, we could evaluate if villain could bluff jam into 3 players (would be surprising). And I forgot to tell that we didn’t take into the equation that villain might hold a T, or a J, or a 6, which would substract another out for us.
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