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Hey guys, I think this was a bad fold on the turn. Perhaps should have flatted and seen a river, but would still appreciate feedbacK.
http://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/29007
Hi Scott! Tell us why you folded the turn. Why did you think your ace was no longer good? What kind of hands do you think your opponent has that will lead out instead of staying in flow? Do you think your straight would have been good if you hit it and do you think the kind of hands he is leading turn with will pay off with a board that scary? Examining a binary decision isn’t going to lead you to a better thought process. For instance, if you think he made 2 pair on that turn and will not slow down when there are 4 to a straight on board, that may be a bad fold. If you think he will shut right down with 2 pair if the board doesn’t brick out, then it may be a good fold.
Hi Scott,
Thanks for sharing this hand, it’s an interesting one. I’m still fairly new to forums like this but I’m excited for this community!
I ran some basic calculations in Equi-Lab with this hand because I see stuff like this often in online, low-stakes MTTs and cash games myself.
We don’t have any details on these players so I made some assumptions with the BB Call range at over 50% and including high value cards like KQs, etc. Again, these are just basic approximations of what type of range you could see for these positions.
Putting your hand and his/her holdings into Equi-lab (and ignoring the other two because that calculation took forever…), your equity is about 85% over the BB call range over 50% of hands and including those premium holdings like KQs, etc.
I think you’re right that this was a tight fold in retrospect.
You block the 10 for both Q-10 and 10-7 for his turned straights, you have one diamond so it’s possible he’s on a diamond draw, there are two aces out so you block most Ax hands he could have called and flopped two pair and tried to trap you, and it’s very possible he’s on some sort of flush/straight draw here with low holdings hoping for a gutter on the river and donking into you to try and knock you off top pair or a better draw compared to their bad draw (edited).
At the end of the day, I don’t think I’d be going anywhere with almost 3.5:1 pot odds with top pair and an open-ended straight draw with what sounds like a sticky player. I probably advocate shoving here and seeing how it plays out knowing you have a ton of equity against their whole range in this spot.
Sure thing. I see where you are going with your response, I appreciate it.
Him coming out and betting the turn tells me has made something (like you said two pair perhaps…thats what I was thinking in the moment). Hands like J 8 or J 9 are ones he could definitely be holding. In other words, A 10 off doesn’t beat much anymore. And I have two behind me. They folded, which was frustrating. If they aren’t in the hand and it’s heads up, I think I flat and take a river. And no, I don’t think he would have slowed down, even if the 4 to a straight came out. He had been playing pretty fast all day, but had not been caught bluffing.
Hope that makes some sense as to my thought process. Thanks for responding!
Yes fold was to early, top pair open ended u could of just called to see a river, i probably would of raised to 150 because u picked up equity.
It’s a tough fold but I would have done the same due to having players still having acted. Especially 2 players who have position on you. For you to raise and have 3 callers Preflop and then Bet and get 3 callers puts your hand at a disadvantage. Like you said if it was heads up then you should never fold to a lead out on the turn. Next time try to size your bets a little bigger to thin out the field and only have 1 or 2 players call. I noticed that in the 1/2 1/3NL if you raise 2 to 3 X the BB you still get lots of callers, so try to raise a little bit more like if you’re getting more than 2 callers.
Hi! I personally think it’s a good fold, he could have clearly made 2 pairs on the turn with some of J-8/J-9 hands or mabye defending a Q-10 on the BB and flopped a double-gutter and get it on the turn, then leading to make flush draws fold because you are still 4 in the hand at this point. Even if an offsuit queen or 7 hits the river you are not necessairely holding the nut. Good fold i’d say.
Scott, thanks for the hand. I’ll never say anyone made a bad fold as long as they have sound reasoning behind it. I read yours and I think all of that makes sense.
Something to think about. On the flop when you c-bet 18 into 48 its giving everyone a pretty good price to continue with any kind of draw. Flush draws, straight draws, and even some pairs that gain a equity with good turn cards. The villain could certainly have two pair, QT for the straight, a set, or even just a flush draw. When he leads into you on the turn I’d probably take out the straight because there’s no reason to think that it would have checked all the way around and if it did he could lead the river on any brick. It’s possible he was leading to take a stab at the pot and also control the size to see the river at a reasonable price.
I don’t hate the fold as played.
Kind of surprised to see 4/5 callers pre. Perhaps you need to up your open a bit (see Christian Soto on ‘pain threshold’).
As played, flop bet needs to be almost double (from 33% to 66% with being OOP and wet board), I think.
As played the turn donk lead looks very much like you are now beat. He’s donking into 4 players with a turn card that hits most of your opponents range. I’d only call of you are sure that a) you wont get 3-bet b) you can get paid off on a straight or c) there is a real chance he’s bluffing and will give up OTR.
Absolutely. I think I bet too small with my C-bet on the flop. But other than that, on reflection, I think it was a fold I had to make.
Lots of interesting responses above.
I think either calling or folding the turn is fine in this position. In a heads up pot you should certainly be calling with top pair and up and down considering the price you’re getting. If he had bet like $100 we could easily fold even heads up.
The problem here is there are two players behind who could also have all of the two pairs hands, straights, and flush draws that are going to continue. If we call and get back raised we pretty much hate life and have to fold a hand with some decent equity against most ranges. I think it’s pretty unlikely we have the best hand and, considering our redraw is not to the nuts – we could be drawing dead – i think we can fold this spot and just avoid a difficult spot on the river. I wouldn’t feel comfortable calling again on the river if it came like the 3 of clubs and we faced a reasonably sized bet.
Sure, we sometimes have to call this spot when we have top pair. I’d save those moments for when we have top pair and the nut flush draw like A5 of diamonds or something. As played and with 2 players behind I think we can fold this holding.
I disagree with the comment above that you should be jamming over this $50 donk. This is a horrible hand to bluff jam with. For one, we have some showdown value with the A. We can definitely have worse hands in our range to bluff with. We also have a diamond in our hand AND a ten, which are cards we want our opponent to have when we jam so that they can call with some type of draw. We also can’t be sure that our A outs for trips are good so we have even fewer guaranteed outs when called. In general, I wouldn’t expect to have much fold equity in this situation. Usually when players donk bet later streets they like their hand and are just going to go with it pretty frequently.
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