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I played this hand at my local casino. The villain in this hand seemed like a very solid player. We played for 3 hours without having too many conflicts prior to the hand. He has seen me bet most of my hands aggressively and I gave him credit for being a thinking player. I start the hand with AJo in the big and after a few limps, put in a raise to 15. The small blind is a very slow player and folded pre only because I bet out of turn. All of the limpers call which is pretty standard for 1/3. The flop comes J 9 6 rainbow. I connect with this flop pretty well and I see no reason not to continue betting, so bet I do to 40 and it folds around to the villain who flats. The turn pairs the 9 and completes the rainbow. My thinking was that I can only really get value from 2 streets and there are a few rivers I would not like to see so I continue for 100. I also feel like it disguises my hand a bit as it also looks like I’m just continuing to barrel if I didn’t connect. My plan if called is to check/call most brick rivers that don’t complete an open ended draw. After leading for 100, my opponent thinks for about a minute very quietly before announcing all in. I tank for a good 3-4 minutes before putting in the call. My thoughts here are that this turn shove is designed to get a fold given the action. Hands that he may have for value are pretty polarized to a 9 or a boat. I can’t imagine he would let 3 other players go to the flop with QQ+ without putting in a 3 bet. I think his most likely holdings here are a worse jack or a straight draw and this is solely because I think this shove would fold out a lot of hands that may continue to bet or call a river bet. Your thoughts are appreciated.
My bad it will no longer let me edit my previous post but I did link to sharemypair in the post. The flop was Js9d6h. I’ll also put the link here: http://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/28993
I just changed the settings so now you will have four hours to edit any comments. Hopefully that will be helpful. Let me know if you think that’s good or if you think it should be different.
Really interesting hand. If he’s actually a good player I can’t imagine he’d ever have QQ+ (like you said) JJ or 99 since he just limps initially on the button after two players limped ahead of him so he’s either got 66, or some combo containing a 9, or a bluff. Shoving with a J would be a big mistake on his part since it’s unlikely you have a straight draw given the preflop action. He’d only get called by better.
I think you reasoning is sound but at the end of the day it’s really hard to imagine a live 1-3 villain taking a line like this with a value hand. If you knew the villain was able to balance with some big hands then i think you would have to fold. Very cool hand that highlights the weird parts of live play.
Interesting hand. Hard call to make. A lot of the time you could be drawing stone dead.
How do you play the hand differently if he calls your turn bet and you don’t improve and straight gets there on the river? Check fold?
A K,T,8,or 5 make the open ender. I guess a Q could also be a scare card too but I think he might decide to just take a pair to showdown instead of turning it into a bluff. I’m going to get bluffed sometimes and I’d rather it be when the straight comes in and there are more hands that improved in his range.
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