Is this a good spot for a thin value bet?

[Yazzie]

1-2 NL

One of many weaknesses in my game is not value betting enough. I don’t ever go for the gangster thin value especially on rivers.
Everybody straddling on the button. This is the first orbit after another table which just broke joined our table. Main villain in this hand is a competent player who just joined the table.

We straddle on the button. $5
Blinds call, utg makes $15, mp calls, CO calls, we have Q♦️8♦️and we complete our stack: $900, SB (main villain) callsHis stack: $550. BB calls.
6 ways to the flop pot is $90.
Flop is Q♠️7♦️3♥️
Utg leads $25, MP calls, CO calls, we call, SB calls.
5 ways to the turn the pot is $215
Turn is: 8♣️.
Action checks to me, I bet $90.
SB calls everybody else folded.
Then HE CHECKED BLIND. Pot is $395.
River is A♣️.

What do you think??? Should I value bet the river? What hands check the river in the dark?

I was worried of A7, A8 and couldn’t think of worst hands that can call.

I ended up checking back and SB showed K♥️Q♥️.

[John S]

I’m stuck here. Sure you missed a value bet, but when your opponent blind checks the river I have no idea what to put him on. It makes zero sense.

It doesn’t make sense to do this with a draw (no flush draw, a few straight draws here). But if he hits he can’t lead the flop, so he’s losing a lot of value because you can check. So I take that out. A8 or A7 doesn’t make much sense as there’s no flush draw, and calling a decent size isn’t very wise with second or third pair. This only makes a tiny bit of sense if he thinks you’re on a stone cold bluff and he’s checking back river 100% of the time, but I don’t see that play happening much, especially at this level.

That leaves a set, but again doesn’t make much sense as he’s losing a lot of value by letting you check back the river and see the showdown for free. Again, none of these hands make sense but I guess in some weird sense I think the set does the most. I’d say this hand is just an anomaly because you’ll rarely see a player take this line. Honestly, I would probably need to take 10 or 15 guesses before putting him on KQ.

That said, you missed some value by not raising, but given the goofy blind check I don’t see the issue with the check and taking the low variance route. I think if he checks normally you have to bet all day. I suppose bet-fold is an option, but that’s something that a lot of players need to work into their games (myself included). I know it’s kind of hard to think about betting just to fold, but it’s one of those long-term value things that we need to try to add into our games.

[Noam Shahar]

I would absolutely bet the river there. I don’t see what you should really be afraid of here. The Ace shouldn’t hit his range here when he limp calls preflop, check calls the flop and turn, and then checks dark the river. If anything the ace could be a scare card for him so you should size down to 1/4 pot or 1/3 pot ($100 to $130). He can have any worse one pair hand Q9, QT, QJ, and KQ that should be able to call that size of a bet. He should be raising AQ preflop so I wouldn’t suspect him to have top two very often. A8 seems super unlikely because that means he check called the flop in a multi-way pot with Ace high and no draw. Even A7 doesn’t appear to be in his range. Why would he check call both flop and turn with second pair in a multiway pot. He played the hand very weakly and passively so I would imagine your two pair is almost always good here. It looks very much like he just has a Q when he check calls twice on a dry board and then checks dark the river. The only other hands I could see him having are slowplayed flopped sets of which there is only pocket 3s or 7s. So that’s not too many combinations of hands (There are many more combos of Qx hands he could have). If he check raises your river bet, as annoying as it is, you may just have to fold as it only makes sense for him to have a set or some sick bluff.

I like your turn bet though. Sizing a bit less than 1/2 pot should keep weaker Qx hands in and the players all seem pretty weak when they suddenly check to you on the turn.

[Yazzie]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

In retrospect I agree with Noam. I’d value bet the river. Sometimes when you have top two on a dry board and you get called, you can’t put your opponent on anything. Their range have sets, better/weaker two pairs, and one pair.
Top two on a: 7 Q 8 3 rainbow board is not a common spot for me. That’s why I simply didn’t know what to do. When I can’t put my opponent on a hand, I usually go with the “safer” play. I bet the turn knowing that I have the best hand. The call and check dark actually confirms it. However an ace, king, jack, and 10 rivers does change the board. Now many hands that were good enough to check/call given the pot odds have improved to a better two pair.

If this was a 2-5 table I would’ve bet the river knowing that I have the best hand because players are capable of floating with second pair and gutshot and other weaker holdings.

Bet/fold is not an option here in my opinion. My opponent doesn’t have enough for me to fold to a raise. Even if I only bet $70. I’d be getting 4:1 and I’m deep enough to make the call.

But it’s all in all a bad check back. I was talking to a friend about this hand and he didn’t even think that it’s “a thin value bet” and I agree with him.

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