Is this a good value bet? Sizing?

[Rick Wells]

$1 Freeze out KO 6-Max, NL Hold’em
3000 starting stack
Blinds 20/40

I’m in BB with 8s 8d ( Stack 3795).
Villain is in CO (2417).
Button (3109).
SB (2746).
***PRE-FLOP***
Villain calls (40)
BU calls (40)
SB calls (20)
I raises to 260
Villain calls (220)
BU calls (220)
SB calls (220)
*** FLOP ***: [6d Jh 5s] Pot (1040)
SB checks
I bets (420)
Villain calls (420)
BU folds
SB folds
*** TURN ***: [6d Jh 5s] [Ah] Pot (1880)
I checks
Villain checks
*** RIVER ***: [6d Jh 5s Ah] [8h]
I bets (750)

My thoughts during the hand :

Pre-flop Raise is sized 260 because I want to get some money in the pot in case I flop a set. I have them all covered and its a bounty Tournament, which is why it might be a little on the small size. I wanted to be able to get away from the hand and still have everybody but 1 person at the table covered.

On the flop I figure that a bet was best since our hand is vulnerable to overcards, but also because it was a limped pot to start with so and a worst pair could call here. After the bet I have 3115 in chips still leaving me with more then all but the winner of this pot if I need to get away.

On the turn I was just hoping he didn’t bet. Easy fold.

Is this a good value bet on the river? Do you prefer a check raise / check call?

I gave up on the share a pair website after entering 1/2 the hand, 4 times.

[Chuck M]

I Like the pf raise and the flop cbet, turn I guess I’d also checked.
River, we sure want value here. But it might a little bit of a thin spot. I dunno, maybe it’s ok too. Could you be bettin a bd flush? Or a straight? Since you iso oop pf, I guess there’s not a lot of combos of flush you could hold, besides KQs, maybe KT, QTs… and would you iso with medium gappers (such as 97), or take the free flop, closing the action in that multiway pot…

so, i don’t know on which level villain thinks, but I’m not sure we have a lot of flushes and straights in our range. We can be value betting the river with 99, TT, Jx, QQ, KK, even Ax who checked the turn to induce. Villain might call our river bet with Ax, maybe Jx, could he have 2pair combos or undersets, (would he bet turn ip with those holdings?)…
I think we still have to value bet that river, i like your sizing too, and I guess we fold if villain raises… well it would be a tough fold too (what value hands would he be raising with?)…
Yeah I like your river bet, pretty sure we win the majority of the time 👍🏼

[Rick Wells]

Hey Chuck;
Thanks for taking the time to help me out with this on man.
Pretty confident this guy would of bet the 2 pair and under sets in his range on turn (A5,A6,55,66). I not sure how many aces he has after the turn check. I think the limp/call pre-flop limits his range to small suited aces. A5 and A6 can continue on the flop, but I think he eliminates them on the turn check. I’m not sure if he would bet a combo draw or not, but they are not calling the river.

So if we take out the aces, 2 pair, and under sets, that just leaves only KJ,QJ,J10. Maybe J8 J9
That can call. I am not so sure with this sizing however.

Do you agree with this, or am I being too cautious with my analysis?

I would have to call the river raise getting 4-1 odds.

It would be a good bluff spot I think.

[Author]

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