Last hand of the night

[Gary C]

Hi everyone, it’s my first time posting so please give me any feedback or input on the content or how any of you would have played the hand differently in this situation.

I’ve been a rec player for over 10 years now, both cash and tournaments, so I feel like I have a pretty good understanding of the game. This venue was a home game, started off as 3/5 NHL and ended up turning into a 5/5 that played more like a 5/10 by later in the evening. Several loose players and stack size averaging around $2k or so.

This hand was the last hand of the night, opponent was pretty intoxicated but still coherent. I was about to rack up but looked down at two black sevens in the cutoff. SB completes and BB raises to 50. This had become somewhat of a standard raise pre-flop, so I call, SB folds and we go heads up to a flop.

Flop comes Qs10h7d, so we flop bottom set. BB leads out for $50, and knowing this player doesn’t usually lead with nothing, I 3-bet to $125. He 4-bets to $400. At this point with both our stacks st around $2100 effective, I figure the board is pretty dry and I’ll let him keep betting, so I flat the $400. Turn comes 2d, which shouldn’t change anything and he open shoves for the remaining $1677 in his stack. I don’t put him on QQ or 10s with the way the flop played, and I don’t see him shoving on the turn necessarily with top or middle set, so I call, he has me covered by $2. The river comes 10s, I flip over my hand and I hear my opponent say “sorry man, I have a bigger boat” and flips over Qh10c for 10s full of queens.

Pretty sick beat for the literal last hand of the night, just wondering what you guys think and whether the hand could have played out any differently.

Share my pair link here http://mysmp.me/vh_kuy

Thanks guys, looking forward to your comments!

G

[David Wibel]

Welcome Gary! First, for hand analysis try to put the action and cards in it’s own row. This can help us see at a glance the sequencing and then put commentary below each section where appropriate.

Question about pre flop action. You mention you were in the cutoff but the SB has the first action as written, was there a button straddle or did you limp? If you open limped unless you are playing a limp range from late position I don’t like the play at all. If you do have an open limp range make sure to balance it with premium hands like QQ+ and suited Aces even up to AK and AQ to not have people narrow you to small pocket pairs. If you had first action, which by the video you do you need to raise, so many K high and Q high hands have great equity, not to mention Ace high and even a number of suited connectors are flipping against you. In short raise this when entering, if $50 has been the standard raise then make if $50 though I prefer 3x when being the first in.

Flop: An amazing flop for you. Bottom set for us and we have the BB leading into us. There are not many made hands, only 77, TT, QQ and QT , I doubt either villain has T7, but there are a ton of straight draws. When BB leads I expect his value range to be QJo and QJs, 89s, J9s, KJs and KJo, plus all 2 pair QQ and TT. I would expect a raise pre flop from those hands and those hands have a good combination of equity and would expect a street from a number of drawsand worse pairs. I like the raise though I dislike the size. Villain bets 1/3 pot and we raise 2.5x, charging him only $75 to win $325. YOu are playing over 400BB deep to start, raise to something like $175 The is still good implied odds for an open ended or pair with back doors. He bet so small he is either trying to see some cards cheap or bluffing with a small bet relative to the pot. And by the way, your bet of $125 is not a 3 bet, it’s only the 2nd bet of the flop so it’s just the re-raise. I like the call of his $400 3 bet. It keeps all of his bluffs in but it does narrow his range. I now put him on open ended straight draws (89s, J9s, KJs and KJo), QT, QQ+ and TT. He has a lot more bluffs in his range and very few hands that have us beat. A big question is why were you quick to eliminate QQ and TT? Does this player only 3 bet the flop with non nutted hands because if he does this is a great exploitative opportunity and we should start 4 betting more frequently.

Turn: With nothing more than a flush draw added to the board and facing an open shove for 1.75x pot it’s a strange spot. This is a very polarizing bet. He has a large number of bluffs (89d, J9d, KJd and possibly some of those without a diamond to keep more of your bluffs in), QT and QQ and TT. I don’t see this from Top-top, an over pair or a gutshot. That said if we don’t call with 77 here you are only calling with TT and QQ and that makes you too exploitable I think. You get it in good and he hits a 6 outer to win. If you had 99, JJ or KK+ I think you can find a fold easily because it removes so many of his potential bluffs and with QT it becomes a more difficult question.

[Gary C]

Thanks David for your in depth analysis! I will note the format for future posts.

I agree with you that I shouldn’t immediately discount his holding potential for QQ and TT, I think in a normal situation those holdings are very possible, but maybe it’s my holdings of 77 and it also being the last hand of the night, I thought if I got it in and it was set over set, not much I could do about it, I’m never folding in that spot.

As I mentioned before, there was plenty of loose action, bluffing and everyone at the table had been a calling station, and this person in particular was an action player. I do hear your point about the $125 raise, and I think you’re right, maybe to $175 would be better. In this case though, do you think he folds or the action changes if I raise to $175 instead of $125? If he’s drawing to 4 outs (2 Qs and 2 10s right?), then I’m pretty ok with that play every time. Just a bad runout I think.

[Gary C]

Also, I do think there may have been other limpers, but noted on the pre-flop raise to 50. To be honest, I mostly just remember the post-flop play on this hand. End of a long session at about 3:30am.

[John S]

David gave a pretty great analysis that I agree with. Unless you make a massive bet preflop and get villain to fold, I don’t see how this hand gets avoided. I think once the flop comes, it’s just a cooler and you get unlucky on the river. I don’t see many players folding top two in an action game to a raise of $175 or $200 on the flop.

There are actually less combos of hand that beat him (1 QQ, 1 TT, 3 77) than beat you (3 QQ and 3 TT). Given the amount of open-ended straight draw combos (12 if you only look at suited combos of KJ, J9, and 98, many more if you add unsuited combos). So he can’t really fold to your raise on the flop just like you can’t fold to his. I suppose jamming flop may get him to fold, but even then he probably doesn’t.

[Author]

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