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Hand from last night. Caesars Palace 2/5 nl.
UTG (no opinion on player) raises $20 ($215 effective)
Hero in HiJack 10c 10h reraise to $65 ($975 effective)
Villain in cutoff (solid reg, just sat down from another table) asks UTG how much he’s playing and then flats. ($2000 effective)
Folds to UTG who calls. (Pot $200)
Flop 9c9s5c
UTG checks, H bets $150, V calls, UTG folds (Pot $500)
Turn 2h
H bets $200 V calls (Pot $900)
River 3d
H checks and V fairly quickly tosses out 4 black chips betting $400.
What would you do in my shoes?TLDR: I would call, you beat a number of showdown value hands that he turns into a bluff and flush/straight draws that he is bluffing with. I’m also bad at this game so whatever. I’m a better armchair player than live player.
Well the real issue is establishing the range of the Villian. He is looking at a bet and a raise and decides to call playing almost 200 BB deep. I would expect this line form 22-99, maybe JJ-QQ would flat to try and get UTG in after the flop but I would expect those hands to 3-bet to like $170 or even 215 to force UTG in or out. I think a lot of suited broadway would call, KQs, QJs, AQs, both varieties of AK and a number of suited Aces, A2s-A5s as well may flat here. Depending on the opponent some lower suited connectors may get in just based on how deep you are playing potentially, 89s, 78s, you block T9s.
With the flop T9s is highly unlikely though 89s is a possibility as is A9s. A lot of pairs he will call with, probably 55+ since a chuck of your range is overs. Maybe he has 78c and is calling with a gutter straight flush draw.However he may also call with two overs that has a club in them, QJc, AQc, KQc or Ax of clubs.
Turn is essentially a blank, the only thing it really helps is like A2c-A4c. I would expect any two overs with only 1 club to fold but most of the pairs that were still there to call. Sometimes he has 22 but I think that is unlikely.
River only completes A4c. We beat most of his pairs, since I expect JJ+ to 3-bet pre flop. I think he gets here with KQc+, AJc, 89c, 78c, 55-88 and a number of suited Aces. Things we lose to are 89s, 55, A4c, and if he called 22 on the flop and 33 on both Turn and river. You only need to win about 1/3 times to be profitable and I think you have that in the combinations he has.
Based on that I would call, it smells like a draw turned bluff or a medium pair going for thin value or turned into a bluff.
There is always a couple ways of playing hands depending on what decisions you make on earlier streets.
One option is going for a check-raise approach on the flop as you have an overpair and want to see what the Villain does first. Of course, we have to assess the risk that if he is on a flush draw now he may take the free card and see what comes. He may also bet as well and you can limit the size of the pot with a check call approach.
I would probably check on this flop with the intention of check-calling.
As played, I would take the same approach to the turn as the 2 should not of changed any action and you are either way ahead or way behind. I would check-call as I feel 10s are too good to be folding at this junction.
Lastly, as played after he calls the turn bet i would continue the story of a big over paid or a 9 by putting out a *Small* value better/blocker better. If you get raised you probably know you aren’t going to be good the majority of the time, however, this approach you don’t allow him to barrel the river and not know where you are in the hand.
This would be my approach but would love to hear from you on any disagreements or agreements you have as its a good way for myself to challenge my thinking.
Cheers
Guy
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