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This hand comes up about 40 min short of bagging at the end of day 2 of the Main Event.
Level 10: 800/1600 200 Ante
Background: I have been card dead all day and the 4 LAGs on my right have really limited my ability to open or three-bet light. I have probably played the least pots of anyone at the table and we have been together all day. In the last hour I have 3 bet PF against a raise and a call and each time both villains folded. Villain 1 is the other tight player at the table and has been blinding down for a while and has not played any significant pots in the last 4-5 orbits. Villain 2 is a skilled, aggressive LAG who has taken a ton of pots without showdown and is the chip leader at our table.
Hero: UTG 69.2k
Villain 1: Lojack 42k
Villain 2: BB 225kI wake up with AA UTG and open to 4000. I elect to go with a larger sizing to make up for my positional disadvantage and the likelihood of having to go multi-way with several of the tough LAGs at my table.
To my surprise Villain 1 fairly quickly shoves all in for the 42k. Even more surprising Villain 2 in the BB reshoves, of course I snap call and flip over the nuts.
Villain 1 shows JJ and Villain 2 Shows AdQd. Unfortunately Villain 2 turns a flush on a 7d3d3h6d and I brick my 3 outs on the river.
Is this a spewy reshove by V2? It seems to me that it is. My opening range in this spot is unusually tight (frankly I was just trying to survive the day and get a better table draw on day 3) for me. Probably 77+, AQ+ and V1 is an observant thinking player so I feel like his shove range against my UTG open is roughly TT+, AQs, AK. My over-calling range is probably QQ+, AK.
propokertools.com says V2 has 24.7% equity against my opening range and V1’s shove range. V2 has 36% equity against V1’s hand. V2 only has 20.1% equity against my overcalling range combined with V1’s range. If I am right about the ranges his play is in fact pretty spewy.
Thoughts on my analysis?
I am pretty bummed about the runout. 183k would have been a well over average stack for a day 2 bag. Next year…
– Phil
Villain 1 is short stacked so he could be shoving a little wider than 1010+ AK, with that in mind Villian 2 shoves makes sense especially with his LAG style. His shoves makes it difficult for you to call even with JJ or AKss, which doesn’t leave many combos left (qq, kk, aa). So I wouldn’t call it a spew but it would be something a loose player, who embraces more variance, would do. Regardless of how tight you were, it so unlikely for you to call his shove.
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