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I realize that I am losing this hand no matter how I play it. I am interested in hearing opinions on the turn play. Spew Happy player has been caught a couple of times making some really questionable plays so my thinking at the time is that I keep it as cheap as possible to bring him along and hope to get more value on later streets.
Should I have just jammed the turn? He showed his hand before folding, by the way.
Hey Tony, when I open the hand replayer it looks like you got it all in on the flop vs TT, the spewy guy folded, and there was no more action. I’m not sure if I missed something.
Flop play is fine, as you mentioned stacks are going to get in no matter what you do. What is important is maximizing your opportunity to stack the spewy player. Considering you flop two overs and the nut gutter royal draw you aren’t going to get away from your hand. By betting on the smaller side you allow the spewy player to get in there with dominated draws. Once the flopped set raises I think it’s close between jamming and calling. I don’t mind calling to once again give the spewy player an opportunity to get it in bad. The only thing I worry about though is if he too flats how we’ll proceed on various turns. On board pairing turns are we jamming? How about an off suit 7? An ace could be deemed a good card to open rip but is it actually a bad card? I personally might just jam to avoid sticky situations and difficult spots on the turn. Considering your description of the player in between though calling is probably best.
Thanks Charles. Yeah, I have to agree that there could be some pretty bad turn cards there. In hindsight, I think I like getting it in on the flop for the long term. This specific situation may allow for just a call, but overall that shouldn’t be my plan.
Good insight, thanks a lot.
Thanks for clarifying Tony. I mostly agree with Charles. The biggest argument in my mind for shoving is to get as much money in as possible while you still have a lot of equity. If you flat, the spewy player flats behind, and the turn is a blank then your equity gets cut in half, there’s a lot of money in the middle, and you’re playing out of position. The pot would then be about $2300 and the spewy player is going to have around $1500 left.
Let’s go over two options we have on a blank turn (shoving and not shoving):
1) SHOVING TURN: If we shove and the spewy player folds, it doesn’t really help us since there’s no side pot and almost all of the equity that the spewy player gives up by folding is going to go to the other opponent who presumably is going to have mainly made hands given the action and the fact that we have two key blockers to flush draws. The other times we jam and he calls we’re probably going to be behind so we’d just be getting an additional $1500 in poorly.
2) CHECKING TURN: If we check and our opponent jams the pot will be $3800 and it’ll be $1500 more for us to call. This means that we will need to win 28.5% of the main and side pots combined. With only one card to come and against just one opponent with a set, which is most likely what the all in player has given the action and our hand, we only have a 23% chance of winning. When we add another opponent in there our chances obviously can only decrease. That would be for the main pot. For the side pot by itself if the spewy player has any hand like KJ, QJ, or even 6s7s we’ll have between 34-38% equity against him.
Now let’s do some math. I’m going to calculate the EV of calling a turn shove from the spewy player. 23% of the $2300 Main pot is $529 and 36%(avg of 34-38% vs spewy plyr) of the $3000 side pot would be $1080. Now if we add those numbers together we get $1609. Since the $1609 EV is greater than the $1500 bet we’re facing, we would be correct in calling a shove on a blank turn. We have to keep in mind this is all based on the turn not being one that pairs the board. Otherwise we have to fold.
Ideally the turn would just go check check and we wouldn’t have to put in any more money until we make our hand on the river but we can’t really count on that happening. Since we have determined we’d have to call a turn shove, I prefer to just shove the turn myself. If the opponent calls that’s fine but if he folds that’s ok too.
The math that I did above is based on calculations that aren’t 100% accurate. I kind of got carried away and did it mainly for fun. What we really need to do is compare the EV’s of jamming and not jamming the flop. I went over what will happen if we call, the spewy player calls, and the turn bricks. Sometimes we’ll drill the turn though and sometimes it’ll pair the board and we’ll be drawing dead to one or no cards.
After doing some calculations and thinking of some other factors that I’m not going to put in here since it’s already gotten crazy long, I think it’s really close between calling and re-shipping. Just to avoid tough turn decisions I like to get it all in on the flop since I know for sure it can’t ever really be a big mistake.
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