Missed Value

[turbulent1]

1-3

Effective stack $450

Action starts with 2 limpers from EP then villain raising to $22 from the CO. I’m on the button and call with As2s. I thought about 3 betting this spot but villains range when raising seemed to be pretty tight. Previous hands he had raised with were 99, JJ, and AJ. I assumed I wouldn’t get a gold from him so I settled on a call. Everyone else folds and we are going heads up to the flop.

Pot – $51

Flop come Ad 3s 6s

Villain bets $30

I’m assuming villains range to be roughly AJ+ and QQ+ with a spade.

I call $30

Pot – $111

Turn Qc

Villain bets $60

I call $60

This is the point where I became unsure of what to do in this spot. I assume villains range to be AJ+ and AA. I don’t think he would lead the flop and turn with QQ or KK. I believe he could do this with some combo draws contains an A, or possibly KQss is probably the worst hand he would show up with. Given this thought I think raise would have been the best play to set up a potential river shove on good river cards. Still not sure though so any help on the turn play would be appreciated.

Pot – $331

River 7s

Villain checks

I shove and villain folds.

It’s always nice to win a pot but I feel like I missed some value on the turn and possibly the river if I had used a smaller bet size.

[John S]

You did some math wrong. Pot after the turn is 231, not 331. So your shove on the river isn’t a pot sized shove, it’s 1.5 pot.

Flop call is good. Turn is probably a call. You’re almost definitely beat after the turn (I’d say at least 90% of the time, probably more). Raising doesn’t do much, he’s calling here and if you miss you just burned away that money. Plus, if he’s got AA, QQ, AQ, maybe even AK he’s reraising. So I like the call to lower the variance.

River is player dependent. You have to remember that EVERYONE sees the flush when it hits. Most players at this level will think you have the flush. Everyone chases flushes, and when they get there people fold.

That said, I don’t think he’s got AA or QQ here. He’s probably still betting those on the river unless he’s super nitty or cautious. So I would probably put him on AK. So you have to think how much will he call with AK (if he had KK you’re lucky you got 2 streets). AQ beats him, as well as A3, A6, sets, and the flushes. When he checks that river you need to give him a price to make a crying call. I would say anywhere from 80-150, depending on the player and the table dynamic.

[turbulent1]

Thanks for fixing my math. A case of fat fingers and entering the info in on my phone don’t really work well together haha. I appreciate the response.

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