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Playing in my weekly game I ran into this hand and would like some feedback on my thought process. I believe there are at least two mistakes I can think of when reviewing the hand but would like more ideas as well.
Game: 1-3
Stack: $300 (hero) $300+ (villain)Game had been playing a little loose with standard opens to 4x being called 3-4 way. I would still not characterize the game as a lottery. Villain is on the button. Haven’t played with him before and haven’t seen him show down many hands but seems like a thinking player. I would characterize him as rather laggish. My image at the table is fairly taggish.
Hero: middle position open with AQh to 22. Button and BB call. Pot size $67
Flop: Qs Qd 10h
-I open to $42 with trips and the back door straight and flush draws. Button calls, SB folds. Pot size $151.
-Huge flop for me. With two Q on board, I believe I am blocking most other reasonable Q combinations like AQ, KQ, QJ, Q10. I’m leading here to potentially disguise the Q as well as charge potential straight draws like AK, AJ or any pocket pairs that were set mining.Turn: 6h
– Lead for $80. Button tanks and flats. Pot size $310
– It’s concerning that the button can flat here. I range him now to possibly have AA KK AK AQ AJ KQ QJ Q10 1010.
-I think it’s super unlikely for there to be a Q combo out there. I don’t think 66 makes it to the turn. I also think that 10 10 has to raise on the turn because at this point I’m basically only repping a Q. Well, I guess I could be going crazy with AA and KK here too.
-revised range: AA KK AK AJRiver: Ks
-Ship $156 AI; snapped off and villain shows Q10o
-Not a great river card, but not a terrible one either. AJ and KK get there, but I’m also never folding to any bet here either.Errors:
-river ship. I’m never being called by a hand that missed a straight or flush draw. If AA and AK are there they’re folding. Then again, I really don’t think KK and AJ really get to the river calling two barrels.
-turn sizing is too small. The 80 bet leaves myself 150 with a pot size of 310 which basically commits me. It’s unlikely for to get any action from hands that miss on the river. The outcome is basically the same, but I think the turn bet should have been closer to pot size. That basically only leaves me with $100 behind, though, so should I have just shipped the turn?
-Am I wrong in assuming that my holding AQ makes it almost impossible for someone to have Q10? However unlikely, I believe AQc, KQc, and QJc would be the more likely holding in a raised pot.Have at people.
If there’s a mistake to be found here, in my opinion, it would be the sizing of the pre-flop raise. I know it’s very popular to raise to $20+ in 1/2 and 1/3 games. But when you start the hand with 100BB and you raise to 7+BB pre-flop and get 2 callers, your SPR is already just over 4 (93/22) before you’ve even seen a flop. Even a half pot bet on the flop with one caller will bring your SPR down to less than 2, at which point you’re more or less pot committed with any strong hand. Your very reasonable bet of ~2/3 pot with one caller makes your SPR about 1.6, at which point you really have no choice but to take any strong hand (which AQ clearly qualifies as on this board) to the felt.
If your opponent had raised you all in on the turn you might have been able to get away from it, but I would probably still call in that spot (although I wouldn’t be happy about it). With the flat on the turn, he smartly keeps his range wide and you pretty much can’t check-fold the river. I think you’re right that on the river you’re not likely to be called by worse than AQ, so shoving doesn’t really make sense. But you would have had to call (in my opinion) if he put you all in anyway (which he would have), so it doesn’t matter too much.
As for your opponent’s range, your analysis as stated was probably reasonable since you hadn’t seen him showdown many hands previously. But now that you know he will call 7BB pre-flop with QTo, a wider range assignment is obviously warranted in future. I would not agree that QT is almost impossible (people call very wide sometimes, especially on the button), but it certainly is a small portion of the range here, and I think you were indeed beating the majority of that range.
Dave, Thank you for the response. The typical open in this game is typically 4-5x. The game had been playing a little looser than I like which prompted my 7x open. I actually didn’t think about SPR at all.
Honestly, just reading through the hand and the analysis you provided throughout, you’re leveling yourself based on the outcome of the hand. I would ask yourself the question of how playing that hand differently would’ve resulted in the outcome other than what it was, mostly likely it wouldn’t.
If you check the flop, and the button puts out a bet of $40, what are you doing there?
You Check-Raise to $100-$125 and BTN jams – you can’t fold (unless you’re GOD and know for certain he’s holding Q10).
You Check-Raise to $100-$125 and BTN flats – you’re mostly likely jamming with a re-draw to the nut-flush, plus you have any Qx hand dominated other than Q10 and if the player has 10-10, it’s simply a rough cooler and move on.I don’t think any mistakes were made, the hand played itself pretty much based on the cards. As you described the game, I’m not surprised Q10o called on the BTN. I see loose calls like that all the time, this just happened to be one of those that coolers you. Try not to be too results oriented in this situation would be the ONLY mistake I see.
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