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I know I’m a nit, but….. I play this guy regularly in a home game. I knew he had either a king with a decent kicker or 2 pair. Possibly trips, but not likely. He makes large post flop c-bets when he hits and the board shows a draw. I wanted an open ended straight draw instead of a gut shot. I kept telling myself that I’d call with 6s 7s instead of my 5s 6s. I was 100% either a straight or flush would win given my history with villain.
Just for fun, I pokerstoved (i actually use the mobile app called poker cruncher, very fun).
I gave villain the following range : AA, KK, AK, KQ, KJ, KTs, a few Ax in spades, and 99, 88.
Your hand vs this range is roughly a flip (46/54).
I don’t know if it’s a call, his pot size bet on the flop looks pretty strong, lotta kings in his range, but you have outs, fd and a gutshot to go along. I think we can call, but we can guess he’s gonna bet turn again. And he may be playing for his stack (since he would have about a psb left in his stack).
I guess that if it’s a home game, you could ask if he wants to run it twice.
One last thing, his pf raise looks strong (well I don’t know what the standard raise size was) but when you elect call ip with small sc, that’s a kind of flop we wanna see. If we fold, i guess we could fold pf (or 3bet/fold)
ImhoRaises from 12 to 20 are average in this game. The V is a player that gets tilted like CRAZY when others call bets with draws and win, so I knew he had top pair. He may have had other hands, but hes known by everyone at the table to bet like this and win the pot right then and there. Everyone at the table knew he was playing with his hand face up after this bet. I was just playing scared.
I don’t think your play was too nitty. You weren’t getting the correct pot odds to draw. Period. Villain in this hand is making one of my favorite mistakes to spot and play against. He’s betting too large at too many flops. You beat this guy over time by calling down with better than top pair (overpairs, two pair, sets), and should make a bunch of money doing it. The players I’ve seen with this leak tend to make large turn bets when draws miss and will fire again on the river if they don’t see a flush or obvious straight. I’ve even had them call a river raise with just top pair after I’ve called preflop,flop and turn bets. Those times are when you get paid back for folding many times when he takes a small pot by stacking him.
When a player is making this much of a mistake, let go of your GTO impulses and put on the exploitative pants.
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