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2/5, MP opens to 20$, we’re 1k deep, I have JJ in the sb and I make it 75$, he calls, flop is 866dds, I bet 100$ and he raises to 225$….I’m really unsure about this spot….I’ve seen him use this line with somethings like 77 when this raises gets him to realize his equity for cheap and get to showdown…i’m not really liking being out of position and not knowing what card is bad for me and my hand is quite vulnerable too….i’m fairly confident he wouldn’t raise a 6 often here since he knows i’d be cbetting with air quite a lot…so I went all-in and he tank folded
I feel you become too exploitable if you just fold in that spot.
With the info you gave about the player he could easily have 99/TT and even a combo draw here.
Would he raise with 88 on the flop?
I’d have expected a 4bet preflop with most overpairs.
Call, evaluate the turn.
Not sure if I’d reraise, seems like you’d only get called by better. Only chance of you getting paid is if he wants to gamble on a combo draw..and he has a good bit of equity in that situation still.
You force out all of his bluffs. If a blank hits the turn, check and he may bluff.
So here is a question, are you Jamming for Value or are you turning your JJ into a bluff/semi-bluff? Also was one of your Jacks a diamond?
You represent a number of big pairs (TT+ and maybe 99 or 88) ATs+ and some other broadway both suited and non suited. I don’t know if your opponent thinks you would 3 bet with a small suited A like A5s, just depends on how often you 3 bet. Your bet on the turn to me screams over pair or suited A, depending on how often you C-bet when heads up. I don’t think you ever have a 6 here, maybe you have 88 but not that often. Your opponent could have most pairs (77+ is reasonable and maybe he calls a 3 bet with 66 and lower to set mine when this deep)but also a number of broadway hands that don’t contain a J, such as KQ, AQ+, ATs+ and maybe suited connectors like 9Ts or 78s every so often that decides to be sticky.
So the ultimate question, what is your opponent going to call our 3 bet shove on the flop with that we beat? We beat all of his pair plus combo draws like 89dd and 78dd but he likely folds these to a jam. We are ahead of AQdd, AKdd but vulnerable to those as well having something like 60% equity. QQ and KK, especially with a diamond have us super crushed, though I’m not sure if he has AA or KK here often. Anything with a 6 he has he might raise here as well anyways, just depends on the type of player he is.
The way I see it, there are so many scare cards for you on the Turn here, and we most likely up against a drawing hand a shove is appropriate. Every so often we will be up against a 6, 88, QQ, KK or AA.
You pretty much nailed what I was thinking about…I wasn’t turning my hand into a bluff and I know i’m gonna be beat most of the time I’m getting called BUT I didn’t know how else to protect my hand and equity…if I just call i’m gonna be in a very tough spot on the turn everytime an A-K-Q or diamond hits, but also 7-8-9-10 could be bad more as well…so I didn’t like calling and giving him the chance to check behind every turn so that he can improve for free or give him a great opportunity to bluff me as well…Thanks for you thoughts
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