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I’m wondering if a played right that hand.Not sure that I made the right decision raising at that wet flop, maybe just call and see the turn?
I like the push on the flop. He would have called on the turn anyway with the A. You were a heavy favorite. Variance is a bitch.
After Seat 5 folds and its HU, raising about 1.5x pot should give him poor enough odds to consider not calling a flush draw. However, some players will still make the math mistake and call anyway (I am guilty of over-calling with nekkid NFD far too much). Variance is a bitch when that draw comes in but you are still a favorite with a made 5-card hand.
So even though you could lay a worse price for the draw, most game theory would suggest you want to lay a good price to call for value because you’ll still win more often than you lose with a made straight in a similar situation because the draw still misses the majority of the time.
Hey Tony, as a default you should never assume/consider that you made a mistake by raising a wet flop with the nuts. If anything you should be MORE inclined to do so because it is much, much, much more likely your opponent will call with a draw or second best hand.
As played, you should 900% be jamming over the BB’s raise. Calling here would be a significant mistake in my opinion because you are out of position. What if you instead call and the turn is a brick? Are you going to check to protect your range? You clearly understand the importance of checking to the aggressor because you checked the flop in the SB when you flopped the nuts. If you check you are giving him a free card to outdraw you or to pot control with a hand like bottom two pair. Are you going to – instead of checking – jam for less than a pot sized bet? This is not desirable either. Maybe he folds a non-nut flush draw here (BAD RESULT), maybe he fold 98s for top pair and a gutshot (BAD RESULT), maybe he folds a hand like TT that he overvalued on the flop and is now scared of an overcard on the turn. The ONLY thing you’d be accomplishing by calling this flop raise is giving your opponent a chance to outdraw you or giving him a chance to “wake up” and realize he’s beat on a later street.
Aside from the bad cards on the turn for your hand (any board pair, any diamond) there are also action killers. What if he has a hand like 55 or 56 and a 7 or an 8 rolls off on the turn. Is he going to give you the rest of his stack 100% of the time? Probably, but MAYBE NOT. You don’t want to introduce the possibility of not getting paid off. All of the hands I’ve mentioned so far would have the correct price to call if you jammed as you did on the flop.
Basically, the BB can never have a pure bluff when he raises here. It’s almost 100% of the time a strong draw or 2 pair plus. Just get the money in now before one of many bad cards comes off on the turn or river. If you were in position maybe (and by maybe i mean like 10-15% of the time) consider flatting here only if you’re going to get it in on 100% of turns no matter the card.
A line I like even better than this is to just fast play your hand on the flop against the BTN’s CBET. This flop hits the BTN and BB’s range pretty hard and I’d expect to get action a fair amount of the time. Especially at the 1/2 1/3 2/3 level there are very few players that are just going to hero fold a 2 pair hand or the nut flush draw in the big blind when there is a bet/raise in front of them. Obviously the BB ended up being the villain in this hand, but usually you want to start building a pot against the BTN here, and we want to be raising for value on this wet board against him for the same reasons I mentioned above.
In conclusion, NEVER feel bad about playing the nuts aggressively on a wet board, ESPECIALLY when you’re out of position. Ok, my rant is over. Good hand and keep getting the money in good 🙂
I don’t think there’s ever a time that its not profitable to get it in with the nuts against any draw, you’re ahead of anything really. Assuming you get it in against worst case scenario (sets or flush draws) you will win the hand 64.65% and 63.23% of the time. Just ride out the variance and print that 14% return.
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