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So i had a stack of about $620 when a player moved to my table with a stack around $1200. I was ready to leave when i get pocket aces. I had a bit of raising action before me so i raised it up to $50 to isolate and the big stack called. The flop came K99 rainbow so i put in a healthy bet of $80 after he checked to me. He raised to 200 i called. The turn was a brick he checks, I bet he shoves. He then turns over 79 off suit. Was i chip blind or crazy for the shove or just very unlucky that a guy called a $50 raise with 79 off suit (mind you this is a 1/3 game. I would love to hear your opinions.
My bad i messed up. I was actually in position and he checked to me,i bet he shoved. I obviously called. My thought process being he most likey held AK or something of the sort and that a 9 was very unlikely.
It’s much more likely that he’d raise a 9 here than a K. So even though he checks the turn, I would proceed with caution. Sometimes players just take weird lines, look it worked out for him. So, you should take advantage of his questionable turn check and check back, b/c your only mission as the other guy said should be to get to show down, or to bluff catch potentially. Checking the turn gives yourself a chance to bluff catch the river. The only reason you should ever bet the turn is if there are draws you don’t want to catch up, and there are no draws here to be very concerned with.
Good point. I was probably just chip blind and thought he had a strong king. Was a very dry board and just got caught up in it. Thanks for the help.
On paired flops when holding specifically AA it’s never a horrible idea to check back if in position.
If you put your opponent on a range of hands that will call bets that size, while you probably don’t include too many 9’s (T9s, A9s maybe?), you do include a lot of Kx hands and, most importantly, a lot of middle/low pocket pairs. If we believe his range is maybe 22+, A8s+, AJo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs, T9s and a few other suited connectors/gappers mixed in to fill out the range, you’re either way ahead or way behind on this flop. The most outs a person can have against you is 4 (QJ, QT, JT), and most likely they have 2 outs or even no outs.
If you check back the flop, and the turn is a blank, there’s a good chance 22-88 and TT will bet trying to protect against a hand like AQ/AJ. Even if they then check, they’re still likely to call a bet on the turn when they might have just folded to a flop bet. You also get the added benefit of keeping the pot from getting bloated. Most likely if you check back, a person with a 9 is going to bet, and you can just call two bets instead of getting stacked.
In short, K99 isn’t the kind of board you want to be getting 200+ bigs in with AA on, you’re usually behind if all the money goes in. This is, however, the kind of board you can build a strategy for that both maximizes your value against a weak opponents range and protects you from getting stacked against their strongest hands.
I play 1-3 exclusively and I’ve never seen someone c/r twice in one hand without the near nuts. Hard to fold aces but the turn is probably a check-fold.
Dear Jesse,
you said“The most outs a person can have against you is 4 (QJ, QT, JT), and most likely they have 2 outs or even no outs.”
Can you explain this to me?
@peter,
In response on behalf of Jesse’s comment, he means that IF your AA is the best hand, the hands you would be up against with the most outs are QJ, QT and JT. All these hands have 4 outs to make a gut-shot straight and beat you. Every other hand that you would be beating with AA would have less outs (like TT for example has 2 outs). OR they are already ahead of you with Kx type of hand. Talking about the flop play, it was checked to the AA hand who bet out $80 essentially building a big pot. I am pretty sure Jesse was promoting the check back because if you are beat you are throwing away money, and if you are not beat, with so few outs… its not overly dangerous to give a free card (unlike if there were a flush draw out there). Meanwhile not many hands can call you confidently that you beat (but they might bluff raise you, gasp!). Surely not going to get 3 streets of value here from an under pair. However many of these hands will lead into you on the turn (if you checked the flop) which does pick you up an extra bet into the pot, without you risking reopening the action to a jam and either stacking off, or risking folding the best hand.Moving into check call mode here protects you from being bluffed, and also protects you from getting 310 big blinds in the middle with just one pair.
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