Playing my Set…poorly

[Hans Griese]

All,
Need some advice on this hand. I know where I think my mistakes are, but I’d like to hear from others.

Playing $1/$2, main villain starts with about $160 and is the effective stack. Other notes: villain is a Pro-wanna be. Does not talk at the table at all, has on mirrored sunglasses, and has shown decent pre-flop play, but really has never bet without having the goods.

I’m in late position, there are 2-3 limpers ahead of me. I look down at pocket 9’s (black). I limp along, looking to do some set mining. Villain, in the Big Blind, raises to $10. Seems kind of small, but I’m not going anywhere just yet.

We go heads-up to a flop that comes A109 with two clubs. He bets $15, and I call. I’m currently putting him on a super wide range – big blind squeeze and a connected board, seems like he is trying to deny draws, and maybe get a read on how a weak A is doing.

Turn is a K, which puts a second flush draw out there. He bets $45. At this point, I tighten his range up considerably. I think he may have a decent pocket pair, Ax suited, Kx suited, or even some stronger unsuited Aces. I really don’t think he is in here with the straight draw. I ask what he has behind, he pushes his stack forward for me to see. Not sure why, but it felt very confident – almost like he wanted his stack in the pot. So I just called, with a bad-ish feeling

River is a J. I sit up a bit, trying to play the ‘fish player has an obvious tell hitting his straight’ angle. It apparently works, as he checks it to me. I’m not sure if he thinks I have the straight, or if he is trying to induce a bet. But with 4 to a straight out there and a gut feeling of bad news, I check it back and flip over my set of 9s.

…

To which he flips over his set of Kings (he had a diamond and a club, so blocking 1 flush draw’s King). So, in reality here, I think I lost about the minimum and am ok with that. However, I think there are opportunities to play this better (and win) – again, he seemingly has only bet when he has had it, and often would fold when he didn’t.

Here are my thoughts on my play….
Pre-flop, I should open. Pocket 9s are decent enough to open, especially later position with a few limpers. This would also (most likely) get a 3-bet out of the Big Blind, so I would know his hand strength is a little higher than I would on a weak opening

Flop (as played)….I need to raise him here. This street I think I could have taken it down. An ace on the flop, kings are behind, I see him folding. Perhaps not, but it would also make my hand seem stronger, and likely to let me barrel on a later street. Additionally, if I had raised pre-flop and then raised on the flop, he would assume I had a medium-strong ace, and been out even more often

Turn is a tough one, since it involved a bit of a live-read when I asked his chip stack. I think a call is fine (he bet $45 into about $55) with that gut feeling. Most often I’d say this was a mistake as well, as I should be trying to get all-in ‘good’ to deny draws – although again, I didn’t really think he had a draw here.

Lastly, the River…I’m not positive on this one. Given how the hand played, and his check, do you think I could fire at the river and rep a Q here? I feel like AQ/Q10/maybe Q9 could easily be in my range, especially with those flush draws. I’m not sure if a set of kings would fold, but with an extremely wet board maybe I could.

This one has been nagging at me for a few days now…I know there are lots of opportunities to play it better. I also know that some strategies here would get me stacked given this villains hand, but more often I’ll be winning the pot against AK or draws, and so should ignore the result of this hand from a strategy perspective.

Thanks in advance, sorry for the novel

[John S]

Just a few things:

Definitely raise pre. I can see limping back 22, 55, stuff like that, but 99 is a pretty strong hand over the some limpers in late position.

You need to raise this flop for two reasons. First reason is the best time to flop a set is when there is an Ace on the board since it’s so likely to hit people and they aren’t likely to fold, so you want to start piling money in now since you are likely way ahead against an opponent with a calling hand. (Here you may have had the added benefit of him folding KK and you winning the pot outright).

Second, this is a draw heavy board. Flush and straight draws out there. You need to charge the draws and take charge of the hand.

I’m going broke here almost 100% of the time by the turn with those stacks.

[Han]

I think it more important to play good poker than to use false tells or other fancy plays at these stakes.

I can understand your reasons to over-limp here, but we all seem to agree that a raise preflop should’ve been made.

The flop, as played, the effective stack is less than 100BB. This board favors the 3bettors range and is very draw-heavy. We have a strong but vulnerable hand here and this is a board that the villain would continue with if we raise. We get value from an Ace, two-pair. If the ace was not a club, we can get value from pair plus flush draw. I think raising on the flop and putting the rest in by the turn would’ve been fine.

The turn card was an okay card for us. Villian has all the AK combinations in his range. I agree with John, we’re stacking off here 100% of the time.

[Chuck M]

Same here

Either raise or limp/call pf
Then raise flop for reasons others have said 🙂

Hard not to stackoff the turn, villain can have AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, some flush draws, and we beat everything but an overset (and QJ for the straight). But if villain has a straight, you still have 20% for a boat redraw.

River, shoving there behind villain’s check would be turning our set into a bluff (wishing to make him fold oversets). But that’s putting villain on too narrow of a range, i think, and I feel we’re too strong to turn into a bluff.
We don’t have much value to bet (hoping to get paid by 2pair combos – on a 4-to-a-straight board) (pretty thin i think)…
Maybe deeper we could have b/f, but in that situation, our only betsize on the river is a shove (90 effective if im right).
So, not much (or too thin) value to bet, but we still have good showdown value, so i think i like check > bet

On the other hand, villain checks the river, I believe he doesn’t like that card, he’s got kind of a capped range, maybe he’d fold to a shove.
(but again, that’s turning into a bluff / believing we are beat… And do we know if villain would be capable of folding top or second set?)

[Chuck M]

Well, we can also “bluff with the best hand” (aka making him fold 2 pairs)
Winning without a showdown has some value for ur image in the game too 🙂

[Hans Griese]

Had a similar hand last night – pocket 7s. there was an open ahead of me I called. flop was similar, I didn’t slow play (bet something, didn’t have notes on this hand). Took it down on the turn with another bet.

Practice what you (we?) preach!

[Author]

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