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This is a 1/2 game at Golden Nugget.
I am sitting at about 1k after winning a big pot. Villain is at around 500 effective.
I raise to 10 pre flop in the Lojack with KQ off suit, 4 callers. Flop – 9d,10d,Js
Checks around to me, I bet 35, BB calls. Turn – 6h BB checks, I bet 75, he calls.
River – 9s BB bets 200… I tank for about 8 minutes, he calls clock and I end up folding. I NEED FEEDBACK GUYS, THANKS!
Side note: Villain is a competent winning player from what I gathered from playing with him. Around 30 years old
Getting a pretty decent price here on the river, $200 to win $470 comes to 2.35 to 1 which means you need to win this just under 30% of the time for it to be a profitable call. I think it’d be a pretty bad move for the villain to play TT or JJ this way, assuming he doesn’t 3b those pre, however, it doesn’t mean that he never has those hands. It’s a pretty coordinated board with a flush draw as well, so he should be playing any sets more aggressively. With a T being on board, it also blocks the combos of 9T that he can have. I think we can likely rule out JT it wouldn’t really make any sense for him to play that hand this way on a 9 river especially. If you run this hand through a program like Equilab and even putting in TT and JJ, the one combo of 99 and all the combos of 89 and 9T it shows you have 38% equity against that range. Now if you’ve determined that villain can only ever have 9T, 99, TT or JJ obviously it’s a fold since you never win, however that’s a very slim 13 combos of hands. Do you have hold a diamond in your hand? The villain could also turn a missed FD into a bluff on a board pairing card. Even though the 9 isn’t a great card for your hand I would think you’re still likely putting in a small value bet on the river as stated earlier it would seem really odd for any set to just check call two streets and lead river, although not impossible, and plus you’ll also a full house here a decent amount as well as 99-JJ are all well within your range. So for all of that being said I think it’s likely a sigh call and expect to lose probably most of the time but still win enough to be profitable.
*Side note on this would be 1/2 players tend to never really bet large on the river without having it, I’ve had hands before where I’m pretty close towards the top of my range but know that this particular villian would really never bet this way without having me beat, so if you’re convinced this player only has those 13 combos here it’s a good fold. Given the player description I think it’s likely that a competent player is capable of bluffing with a missed FD or turning a hand such as 89 into a bluff. That’s all IMO.Hello. I think if he flopped a set or 2 pair on a draw heavy board he would raise for sure. this is situation where in a vacuum I would call every time unless I have reason to believe they would play a set or 2 pair in this weird fashion, it is 1-2 after all they do weird stuff in 1-2. but I’d for sure call the river and I would put the Villan on range with A9 or K9 or maybe even 8 9. also don’t forget to consider the Diamond draws that missed that he could have complete air on, and could’ve called the clock because couldn’t take the pressure anymore kinda like Shwartz calling clock on Frederico Butteroni in main event. probably misspelled both their names.
and if you really tanked 8 minutes at 1-2 I can see them calling the clock. shouldn’t take that long even in a home game, go through the actions preflop and player habits and tendencies to identify ranges.Hey thanks a lot for your thoughts guys, I really appreciate it.
The other factor that went into this hand was the fact that I had never been this deep before in a game sitting at around 1k. Any other day I wouldve just gotten my stack in no problem and chalked it up as a cooler. But sitting this deep, I really just did not want to be wrong if I called. Villain has no way of knowing this though, so…
Idk, I have never been so obsessed about a hand before in my life then with this one. Next time its worth a call just to see wtf they have. That has to have some value right???? Sleep at night value???
You guys are awesome, thanks!
Hahaha! yeah sleep value. sometimes I make calls just because of the sleep value. but I feel like if we stick to poker and try to get better at it, that’s something that we will never worry about. That’s why we have to focus on playing against ranges instead of particular hands, and off course sometimes we’re going to be wrong but as long as we’re right most of the time.
Dan, I agree with what everyone else has said here. It’s really hard to put this guy on a boat because:
a) he didn’t 3 bet on a multi way pot with a hand like 10s or Jacks
b) he didn’t check raise your bet on the flop despite being a very wet board (if he had flopped a set)The only other hands would be T9 or J9 but seems odd he would only call there with 2 pair on such a wet flop. 6’s are highly unlikely since he called your bet on such a wet flop.
The lead out on the river by him is also weird. If he really did river the boat, would he really lead out here?
Seems like a missed nut flush draw or missed straight draw??
I think the main issue here is you seemed to have folded this hand without using the same train of thought because you didn’t want to lose your winnings from a prior big pot you won, and you were content with your winnings for the session. I still remember one of my first live cash sessions many many years ago, I had a profitable session and I was very content and I stupidly announced to the table that this would be my last hand, then I woke up with Queens….
I can’t exactly remember how the preflop action went but all I remember is one of the better aggressive players put me all in preflop (might’ve been a 3 bet). I became so narrow minded and I was convinced he had Aces or Kings and after some time I ended up folding. Obviously I was still new then, but I later realized that I was being massively exploited by that player because he knew I was a new player and that I was extremely happy with my session and he could put pressure on me to fold a better hand purely for that fact. This was completely true. I didn’t want to go home empty handed after I had my best live session so I ended up making an extremely nitty fold.
I’m not saying this player was exploiting you that way, but I think you need to play your game regardless, and not be so results oriented in these situations. If you had only $200 behind would you have made that call?
Anyway good luck on the felt next time 🙂
Thanks Mich,
That was one of my dilemmas with my stack size. If I had less than 200 behind I snap call that bet. So there were a couple different things I was thinking about here and could not pull the trigger on the call even tho his line made no sense.
Thanks a lot for your response! I really appreciate it!
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