Pocket JJ nearing the bubble in $200 Tournament

[David Wibel]

Hero: ~25BB JJ utg+1 1000-1500 blinds 1500 BB ante

My image is that of a competent player. I recently made a call down with 4th pair after sniffing out a bluff but I haven’t been caught with things like A6o or K8s. They may see me as a bit aggressive because I am younger but I’m no maniac.

A hand from $200 tournament. With 75 entries (including reentries) I make it down to 14 left. Only 10 get paid and most of us are short. I actually have an average stack or slightly below average.

Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raise to 7,000 with JJ. One player folds and then MP1 shoves, having me covered by about 10 BB, then MP2 calls all in for less, I have him covered by about 4BB. Everyone folds around to me and I struggle with a decision. I’m on the bubble and if I fold here then I still have a somewhat playable stack with potentially 3 left until the bubble. Min payout is small but the player group here tends to do chops or chop everything except top 2 or 3, getting to final table could be around $700 or $800. I only fired once so even if we don’t chop I make a profit.

I don’t expect them to be shoving light, I expect MP1 to be in 88+, and KQ+ and some suited Aces. MP2 could have some more suited Aces as well as 77+ and a number of broadways. If none of them have a pair I am sure they have some of each others outs but I don’t know how many overs I am up against. That said, if I win I am the biggest stack with 2nd biggest directly to my right.

What do you do? I will reveal my decision and villains hands after I see some answers.

[Heath]

In all honesty, I’d probably say a few expletives, fold, then kick myself for folding and just hope to see that I made the right decision after it’s all over with. Tough spot for sure.

[Robert L]

I think you need to call. Playing conservatively in this spot might get you to the money, but you won’t be in a great spot to win the tournament which is worth a lot more. Based on those ranges you should be the favorite (around 35%), and you’re getting favorable price to call. If you win it massively increases your EV and you should be playing for the win. Perhaps you can find a fold if this is the stone bubble and cashing is extremely important, but I don’t think it’s worth it on a relatively short stack.

[John S]

This is probably pretty close here. You could be up against 3 over cards, which is the worst scenario barring an overpair. Unless they both have underpairs, it’s hard to believe there aren’t at least 2 over cards between the two players here.

If I’m doing the math right, you’re getting just under 3 to 1 on a call (pots is around 81K, 30K to call). You’re always getting that price unless you’re up against an overpair (JJ vs KQ vs AT still has you around 35% equity).

That said, if you fold you still got around 20 bigs and can probably find your way into cashing if you steal a few blinds.

I think the direct math says to call, but given the fact you’re pretty sure you can chop if you get into the money makes me want to be more cautious than I probably should be. Then again, this is a $200 tourney and not a $10k tourney, so bubbling this doesn’t hurt as bad.

I don’t know what I would do in the actual position. I probably tank and let it go and relying on the stack I have left to find the money and take the chop.

[David Wibel]

Thanks for the input, so now I will reveal what happens.
TLDR: I fold and see MP1 has AKo and MP2 has KJo, board runs out so that I would have won.

When the first opponent shoved I was happy to call off. JJ is high in my utg+1 raise range here and worst case I am flipping against probably AK. The 2nd player calling my brain goes into overdrive. My thought process was that at the time my stack after folding probably had a $450-$500 expected value from the probability of a chop. Besides being crushed by QQ, KK or AA I figured my worst scenario is JJ vs AK vs KQ or AQ. If I win the pot after calling I am guaranteed final table with a good chance of getting to top 3 or 4 without having to get too lucky. However the overwhelming probability of chopping actually seemed to make the prospect of getting a huge stack less attractive since my expected reward for final tabling was smoothed out.

I tank for probably 1.5-2 minutes (that’s the longest I ever tank) and folded. I expect I am currently best about 75% of the time just because only 3 hands actually beat me but I think I’m going to end up losing about 40% of the time if I call and see 3 overs (as it turns out with JJ vs AKo vs KQo I lose 55%).

I fold, I think if the payout was not going to be so flat once I cash I would call but because of the bigger payoff but with the flat payoff I decide against it. MP1 turns up AKo and MP2 turns up KJo. With those hands I win 55% (close to that 40% lose I was expecting) of the time which is really about the best I can reasonably hope for (baring two smaller pairs like exactly JJ vs TT vs 99).

Board runs out QT7 brick brick and I would have won.

I manage to take my remaining stack to cash (finished 8th) and we chopped everything except for top 3 which was good for ~$650. Doing the math with expected potential payouts would be interesting since in this exact scenario 10th to 4th was the same payout and trying to figure out what the fewest number of places that chop to make a fold worth it.

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